Victoria Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 18th May)

Best Days: Thurs: late possibilities inside Western Port. Maybe a brief window in Torquay around lunch/early arvo as the swell builds, but before the wind swings W/SW. Fri: solid but easing swells on the Surf Coast, also good options in Western Port. Sat/Sun: great waves at open beaches. 

Recap: Wave heights built throughout Tuesday, reaching 3-4ft across the Surf Coast and 6ft+ east of Melbourne by the afternoon, under a fresh W/NW breeze. Wave heights have since trended slowly downwards today, despite the arrival of an (expected) long period W’ly groundswell overnight, which came in just under 18 seconds (peak periods) at the Cape Sorell buoy. This swell was simply too west in direction to favour all but the most exposed beaches east of Melbourne, which were wind affected anyway. Surf size broadly fell inline with expectations, easing from 2-3ft this morning in Torquay, becoming smaller this afternoon. The Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island open beaches were around double the size.

This week (May 19th - 20th)

No major changes to the forecast issued on Monday. We’re still in the midst of a particularly active autumnal Southern Ocean pattern, and gale warnings are out for the coast on Thursday.

Initially, Thursday will start off small in size as the new swell(s) we’re expecting won’t arrive until the afternoon, having been generated by a deep mid-latitude low SW of Western Australia earlier this week. We'll also see some short range energy from a vigorous frontal pattern developing through the Bight, which will also bring about a gusty wind change to the region. 

At this stage by lunchtime we should be seeing a distinct upwards trend in wave heights towards a broad peak expected from very late afternoon (3-5ft Surf Coast), holding overnight and into early Friday morning (4-5ft), before easing into Friday afternoon.

The main problem with Thursday is that the late afternoon upwards trend will be accompanied by strong to gale force W’ly tending W/SW winds. So, options will be limited (and there probably won’t be enough size for protected locations, other than some small waves at Western Port).

Friday morning looks like much better bet, as we’ll see an early peak in size and a steady backing of the wind from the W to the W/NW, which will favour the Surf Coast and Western Port for good, reasonably clean waves. There may be some leftover lumpiness in the water to begin with but it should get better as the day wears on.

The Surf Coast should see early 4-5ft sets at the reefs, down to 3-4ft in the afternoon, whist Western Port is likely to see early 3-4ft sets at some of the more reliable reefs, becoming smaller during the day. 

Otherwise, exposed beaches east of Melbourne are likely to remain too big and wind affected under the easing westerly airstream. 

This weekend (May 21st - 22nd)

I am still very confident that we’ve got a great weekend of waves ahead for the open beaches. 

An amplifying upper level ridge (and surface level high pressure system) is expected to dominate much of the weekend’s weather, delivering moderate northerly winds on Saturday that’ll become quite fresh and gusty on Sunday. 

No significant new swell is expected over the weekend, but there’ll initially be plenty of leftover size from Friday on Saturday morning. Early sets on the Surf Coast should hold out in the 3ft range, whilst east of Melbourne could see 4-6ft bombs from time to time. Expect surf size to ease by a foot or so throughout the day, and also become a lot less consistent too. 

On Sunday morning, a small long distance groundswell is expected to grace the coast, having been generated by a deep low in our far swell window earlier this week. However I don’t think it’ll add much more size to the pre-existing (and easing) swell. 

I think we’ll be looking at very inconsistent 1-2ft waves west of Melbourne, and 3-4ft surf east of Melbourne (easing to 2-3ft during the day). So, get in early for the biggest waves both days. 

Next week (May 23rd onwards)

The weekend’s high pressure ridge across the SE corner of the country will act as a temporary block for approaching frontal systems, backing them up in the Bight. 

However, once the block breaks down around Sunday, and the fronts push through into Monday morning, I’m now no longer expecting an initially sizeable increase. The reason for this is that it looks like we’ll see several low pressure centres develop - one parent polar low near Antarctica, and then a steady of small lows embedded in the frontal stream through the Bight - but all unfavourably positioned within our swell window.

This will probably result in several unconsolidated fetches in the Southern Ocean - the primary fetch being very north in latitude, and very westerly in direction. Such characteristics are not favourable for Victoria’s surf potential. And unfortunately it looks like the polar low won’t remain at strength for very long. 

The trend for the remainder of the week looks very similar, with an active frontal pattern through the northern Bight and not enough storm activity through Victoria's primary swell window to get me excited. Sure, there’ll be waves across the region, though right now I’m expecting only brief pulses of energy along the Surf Coast worthy of your attention. Set waves might top out around 3ft (later Monday, early Tuesday then maybe again around Thursday, this last swell of which could be a little bigger), but otherwise we’re looking at smaller waves in Torquay. And it'll be quite windy too.

Exposed beaches will be quite a lot bigger but very wind affected.

So if you’ve got the opportunity, I’d make the most of what’s in store from late Thursday thru' Sunday, because although the synoptic pattern suggests another extended run of wintry conditions in Victoria for the long term period, I’m not so sure that it’ll be accompanied by typically strong strong swells. 

Let’s take another look on Friday to see how the models are evolving.