Victoria Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 16th May)

Best Days: Local winds will favour the Surf Coast all week. There'll also be window of opportunity at Western Port on Tues, late Thurs and Fri. Otherwise, we're looking at great waves across most open beaches Sat and Sun as winds tend N'ly and the swell eases in size.

Recap: Plenty of small to medium sized surf over the weekend with offshore winds allowing for clean conditions. The Cape Sorell buoy showed an increase in size yesterday afternoon and overnight, but this was mainly short range energy associated with the passage of a cold front. The buoy has recently picked up the leading edge of a new long range swell (16 seconds) which will fill in later today. The Surf Coast continues to be the best option for waves across the state.

This week (May 17th - 20th)

We’ve got a really good, consistent pattern of active Southern Ocean fronts at the moment. Each system is generating healthy swell for the region though the northern position of the (mainly zonal) storm track is resulting in a lot of west in the swell direction. This is keeping a lid on wave heights in Torquay compared to exposed coasts.

The new long range swell seen at the buoy today will be overtaken on Tuesday by a new short range swell associated with yet another cold front that's expected to arrive in the early hours of the morning. With the front clearing quickly to the east mid-morning onwards, winds should straighten up from the W/NW (though at considerable strength) leaving the Surf Coast with the best options once again. Surf size should manage 3-4ft here though sets will invariably be rather inconsistent. 

Much bigger waves are expected east of Melbourne (of course) but aside from Western Port - which will see a massive reduction in size owing to its sheltered location - most beaches will be blown out. We may see more west in the wind direction here too. Expect stormy 6-8ft bombs at exposed spots, and small clean 2-3ft surf inside Western Port on the push of the tide. 

Tuesday’s swell will then ease steadily into Wednesday. The models are showing another swell front gracing the coastline late Tuesday (see attached chart - 1.4m @ 17.9 seconds, due west), but this has originated from the earlier incarnation of the front due to cross the Vic coast tonight - over the weekend it was an intense low W/SW of Western Australia, displaying an incredible 50kt fetch. This was mainly aimed into WA and SA coasts, and as a consequence it’s poorly aligned for Victorian coasts. The low and cold front has since raced ahead of the long period swell it generated. 

This particular long period swell probably won’t have any meaningful impact on Torquay wave heights on Wednesday: not only is the swell too west in direction, but the swell is expected to peak overnight and then trend down throughout the day. So we may see some early stray 3ft+ sets on the Surf Coast reefs but it’ll likely be down to a very inconsistent 2-3ft by mid-late morning. 

Open beaches east of Melbourne are more likely to pick up some strong sets from this source on Wednesday (which will probably just maintain Tuesday’s size, in and around the 6-8ft mark, before easing during the day). With winds remaining moderate to fresh W/NW your best options will once again be west of Melbourne.

Thursday looks fun, but windy. A deep mid-latitude low currently SW of WA is generating a decent swell that’s due to arrive sometime on Thursday morning, before peaking late in the day and then overnight. As a result, we’ll probably start off small and then trend up throughout the day - this time the swell should have a little more SW in the swell direction, which should assist wave heights. So I think we’ll see 3-5ft sets on the Surf Coast by mid-afternoon. Maybe one or two bigger bombs at the reliable reefs. 

Unfortunately, a series of unrelated trailing fronts (yes, more!) are expected to cross the coast during the day and they’ll bring squally W/SW winds at some point after lunch. So there’s likely to be a window of opportunity as the swell builds, but before the front arrives. I’ll have a better timing on this in Wednesday’s notes.

Friday should then see a mix of easing swell from Thursday, plus a peak in short range energy from Thursday’s change: the system behind the front looks strong, though it’s modelled to form very late in the swell window which will reduce the quality of the swell. So expect jumbly, mixed up energy to finish the week (early 4-5ft sets on the Surf Coast, smaller into the afternoon).

With some luck we’ll see winds swing lighter to moderate W/NW as the front clears to the east, that will allow surface conditions to improve. 

Thursday and Friday both look too windy and/or sizeable for open stretches east of Melbourne. Western Port should have small clean options later Thursday and throughout Friday though; nothing overly large but well worth the effort.

This weekend (May 21st - 22nd)

I reckon we’ve got a great weekend of waves ahead. 

For the most part, conditions should be nice and clean with favourable weather as a broad upper level ridge amplifies across the region. This should deliver light northerly winds on Saturday, becoming fresh and gusty on Sunday as a series of fronts rear up from the west.

Friday’s mix of swells should start to iron out on Saturday - yes, surf size will ease but the early morning session should still maintain 3ft sets across the reefs and with the northerly breeze there’ll be good options across the beaches. 

It might still be a little too big for the open beaches east of Melbourne (4-6ft) but there’ll be good options at plenty of places. 

Smaller surf is then expected on Sunday as the northerly gathers strength. The models have a small new long period swell making landfall overnight on Saturday, but this appears to originate from a poorly consolidated, distant system way out near Heard Island over the coming days.

This is generally too far away for any meaningful increase unless the fetch is of considerable size, strength and duration. So it’ll probably just contribute very infrequent sets of a similar size to the pre-existing, easing swell (1-2ft west of Melbourne, 3-4ft east of Melbourne).

I’ll fine tune the specifics on Wednesday. 

Next week (May 23rd onwards)

The storm track look to remain in fifth gear for the long term period, which means there’s no end in sight for Victoria’s surf potential.

Over the weekend, the upper level ridge across the SE corner of the country - almost a blocking pattern - will bank up a series of advancing fronts, with multiple low pressure centres (a couple in the Bight, and a big parent low close to Antarctica). They’ll generate a mix of strong swells from Monday onwards - it’s hard to get a gauge on the likely size at this stage but we can be pretty confident that it’ll favour the Surf Coast (let's ball park 3-4ft for now).

Model guidance is suggesting a temporary break in the wake of this system followed by another lengthy spell of fronts that should maintain moderate to occasionally large surf through the back half of next week, the weekend and the start of the following week. And it’s not even winter yet!

Let’s take another look on Wednesday.