Extended run of swell for the Surf Coast
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 9th May)
Best Days: Surf Coast from Wednesday
Recap
Good waves across the beaches on the Surf Coast over the weekend, and also spots handling the swell to the east of Melbourne. A moderate sized W/SW groundswell filled in through the day Saturday, holding Sunday morning before easing through the afternoon and back further into this morning. Winds continued to favour the beaches this morning, best east of Melbourne with the smaller easing swell.
This week and weekend (May 10 - 15)
We've got a very dynamic windy and stormy week ahead as a series of vigorous frontal systems push straight into and across the state.
Currently an intense mid-latitude is moving in across South Australia, with it due to dip south-east across us during tomorrow, but at the same time, a small cold front pushing up from the south-west will combine with it, strengthening as it pushes across us.
A fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds will be generated through our swell window, kicking up a stormy increase in swell tomorrow afternoon to 3-4ft+ by dark but with strong W/SW winds.
The swell will draw out in period overnight, peaking Wednesday morning to a stronger 4-5ft+ across the Surf Coast, while the Mornington Peninsula should see 6-8ft+ sets. A secondary front quickly racing in on top of the initial front will swing winds offshore from the W/NW, but become tricky and strong through the day. This will favour the protected reefs on the Surf Coast and protected spots east of Melbourne.
This secondary front should produce a reinforcing pulse of SW swell for Thursday, holding around 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula under fresh W/NW tending NW winds.
This swell is expected to ease back slowly Friday morning, but yet another strong mid-latitude frontal system is forecast to generate a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds through our south-western swell window Wednesday evening and Thursday.
Another moderate to large SW groundswell is expected, possibly showing later Friday but peaking Saturday morning to 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions are looking excellent with gusty N/NW tending W/NW winds, with yet more frontal activity due to push through over the weekend.
All this activity will be linked to a zonal storm track being established across the south of the country and the frontal activity doesn't look to settle down until at least mid-late next week.
With this we'll continue to see moderate to large pulses of groundswell with favourable winds for the Surf Coast, quite an amazing period.
The models are still moving around regarding the structure of each front from the weekend, so check back here Wednesday for more of an idea on the timing and size of each pulse through next week.
Comments
G'day Craig, just registered and love your work mate. Heading down to Port Fairy this weekend, do you reckon with this large swell and strong wind it might be bit out of control that far down the Coast?
Exposed breaks yes, but in town it should be clean and smaller, more manageable.
Cheers Craig, yeh main beach in PF isn't usually workable, just closes out when it gets big and not many banks, but might head closer to Warnambool for a look if passage is too wild. Still waiting for that rare day the lighthouse breaks, could be this weekend!
Yeah I was thinking that when checking it out on GE. Don't know that town too well sorry. Good luck.
fuck imagine if this winter some how topped last years !! yeewww
the start of spring was good too last year!
was thinking the same thing super fish!
Haha. If this winter tops last on the morn pen may as well throw the towel in.
almost coast haha
We also accept 'Least Coast'
Do you do many day trips to the surf coast? Always wondered in crew from the peninsula made the journey for good swells...
If its certified good i guess. Either a 3 hour drive round melb or the fucking ferry which costs 150 return if you wanna go solo 75 each with a mate 50 with etc
Wouldn't you just surf Western Port or go round to PI ?
Hey craig how big do you reckon it'll be tomorrow morning at dawn at bells/winki before the onshore change comes through ? Just wondering if its worth hauling out of bed with this forecast ...
Nah sleep in, it'll be tiny ahead of the change, Cape Sorell bottoming out.
Looks like waves all week, where should I be going surfing to get the best of this swell every morning Craig? Should I hit it at dawn or maybe snooze then breakfast at a nice cafe then hit it mid morning? Where do you think Gary will be surfing? Thanks in advance. :)
Ha!
Gary's on the Gold Coast for the National Sunbed games . He's literally built up an antidote to tanning .
I expect he'll fly in fly out for it then.
It's not a joke Goofy, over the past week I realized the value of this site, I wont be getting out of bed at all without checking with Ben or Craig first. :)
Ha.
Thanks for the prompt reply.
I'd say for optimum conditions and maximum nap time hit up fishos for the high tide around 2pm (;
Thanks but Fisho's is a long way from Gippsland, but I do understand that the surfing world revolves around Torquay:)
You may not be able to see Gary, but he's always watching.
I don't mind YOU lurking in the bushes Gaz , I just wish you'd keep you hands out of your " pockets " .
The binoculars and night vision goggles are also a little unnerving . But I might need to borrow them both in the near future .
So we're still cool right .? I was only trying to help when I " upgraded " your tanning bed to 3 Phase . You said your aim was always " cooked bacon glow " instead of" honey glow " .
Here we go again.
What's the swell doing? Should i get up?