Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 27th April)

Best Days: Exposed breaks Thursday, Friday and Saturday, Surf Coast dawn and late Sunday, Tuesday afternoon onwards

Recap

A good new inconsistent SW groundswell offered clean 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula ahead of a further kick into the afternoon with swell magnets on the Surf Coast seeing very inconsistent 3-4ft sets.

Today the swell has eased back to the 2ft range again on the sets across the Surf Coast, with 3-4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula under N'ly winds.

This afternoon a new W/SW swell (now showing on the Cape Sorell buoy) is due to fill in with better 2ft+ sets due across the Surf Coast and 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula as winds hold from the N'th.

This week and weekend (Apr 28 – May 1)

This afternoon's increase in W/SW swell is expected to ease through tomorrow, but a burst of W/SW winds just to our west this morning as a front dips south-east should keep small 2ft sets hitting swell magnets across the Surf Coast tomorrow, with 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds are a little funky but should be variable (likely offshore) before E/SE sea breezes kick in.

Friday will then be only really worth a surf east of Melbourne with fading 1-1.5ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula with N'ly winds all day.

Into Saturday a small W/SW swell will stop the Surf Coast going flat, but not over 1ft+, with better 3ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula along with N-N/NW winds, favouring the western end of the peninsula over the east.

Our first and smallest pulse of W/SW groundswell in a series of stronger activity is due into Sunday across the state. This and a secondary pulse for Sunday will be generated by back to back frontal systems pushing up from the south-west of WA over the coming days, north-east through the Bight before drifting further west while breaking down through the weekend.

Two separate and similar sized W/SW groundswells are due, the first for Sunday coming in at 2-3ft across exposed breaks on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula with the secondary pulse for later in the day and Monday morning seeing better 3ft+ and 5-6ft+ sets respectively.

Conditions at dawn Sunday are due to be clean on the Surf Coast and a fresh N/NW'ly, but a gusty W/SW change is due mid-morning, possibly tending back to the W/NW on dark as another front approaches.

Monday then looks great on the Surf Coast with a fresh NW'ly persisting all day.

Next week onwards (May 2 onwards)

Now, heading into next week we're expected to see a series of large W/SW groundswells impacting the state, all due to the Long Wave Trough.

Sunday and Monday's swells will be produced by fronts starting to fall under the influence of the LWT, but we'll see the strongest activity occurring through this weekend and early next week as the LWT stalls over the Bight.

An initial polar low will create an active sea state for a vast and expansive fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds to move over, projecting up and across the Bight.

Now, this storm track isn't ideal for the Surf Coast with it producing swell with quite a westerly bias, resulting in quite a bit of size loss as it rounds Cape Otway.

Still in saying this, the size, length and vastness of the fetch should produce a large and powerful long-period W/SW groundswell, building strongly through Tuesday ahead of a peak through Wednesday.

The Surf Coast should build to the 6ft range into the afternoon Tuesday across exposed breaks before peaking Wednesday to 6-8ft (10ft bombs are more than likely at swell magnets, but check back Friday for an update on how it's developing). The Mornington Peninsula is due to see larger 8ft+ waves into Tuesday afternoon, peaking Wednesday to 10-12ft+.

With the LWT stalling over the Bight, winds are looking excellent for the Surf Coast with a strong but easing N/NW tending NW breeze Tuesday and then gusty NW tending W/NW winds Wednesday.

Into Thursday and Friday some better aligned reinforcing SW groundswell is due from a flurry of secondary activity as winds tend more N'ly Thursday and back to the NW Friday. More on this Friday though.