Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 18th April)

Best Days: Both coasts Tuesday, Wednesday east of Melbourne, desperate surfers dawn Thursday, Surf Coast Saturday morning, both coasts Sunday

Recap

Poor small onshore waves Saturday, while Sunday saw the beginnings of a new strong SW groundswell, around 3-4ft and 6ft respectively across both coasts but with fresh onshore S/SE winds. The larger S/SW groundswell kicked very strongly late morning and provided good surf in protected spots through the afternoon.

Today the swell had dropped back to the 3-4ft+ range on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, with good winds for locations east of Melbourne, improving across the Surf Coast through the morning. The swell should continue to ease as winds tend variable early afternoon ahead of possible weak mid-afternoon sea breezes.

This week (Apr 19 – 22)

Cape Sorell is on a steady drop and with this we'll see the surf following a similar pattern through tomorrow, bottoming out Wednesday.

Exposed breaks should ease from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast with 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, down to 1-2ft and 2-3ft respectively Wednesday.

Conditions will be great most of tomorrow with local morning offshores, tending variable into the afternoon, while N'ly tending N/NE winds are due Wednesday, favouring swell magnets east of Melbourne.

A very inconsistent long-range SW groundswell will stop the surf going flat on Thursday, but only very inconsistent 2ft sets are due across swell magnets on the Surf Coast with 3ft to possibly 4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Unfortunately besides a dawn N/NW breeze, winds will swing more W'ly ahead of a shallow SW change.

Friday looks to be another lay day with leftover amounts of swell and onshore S/SW winds.

This weekend onwards (Apr 23 onwards)

A mix of very inconsistent long-range and similar sized but more consistent shorter-range energy are due through Saturday and Sunday.

The long-range energy is being produced around Heard Island by a strong but weakening polar frontal progression. The swell off this is due to build Saturday afternoon and peak Sunday but not above a very very inconsistent 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

The shorter-range energy will be produced as the weakened polar front continues east, producing strong to gale-force W/SW winds and then restrengthens south-west of us early Friday morning.

A more consistent but similar sized SW swell is due Saturday, offering 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Note that our model is combining the building long-range energy with the short-range swell and over-forecasting the size through Saturday afternoon and evening.

Lighter SW breezes are due Saturday morning, likely tending W/NW on the Surf Coast through the morning, with light N'ly winds into Sunday as the swell eases. We'll have another look at this Wednesday.