Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 13th April)

Best Days: East of Melbourne and Surf Coast beaches tomorrow, Surf Codat Friday (MP early morning), both coasts Monday morning

Recap

Solid clean 3-5ft waves continuing across the Surf Coast most of yesterday before weak onshores developed through the day, while the Mornington Peninsula was larger but poor with no decent options.

Today a smaller swell and onshore wind created average conditions on the Surf Coast, while the Mornington Peninsula was a touch better, with cleaner surf around Phillip Island.

This week and weekend (Apr 14 – 17)

Tomorrow will be best east of Melbourne and on the Surf Coast beaches, with the arrival of a good but very inconsistent SW groundswell.

This swell, produced by a strong storm in our far swell window should provide very inconsistent 3ft+ sets across swell magnets on the Surf Coast tomorrow, with 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. A slight drop in size is due through the afternoon, down further from 2-3ftt and 3-5ft respectively Friday morning.

Winds tomorrow will, start out light E/NE across both regions, tending more N/NE across the Mornington Peninsula and possibly regions of the Surf Coast before weak sea breezes kick in. This will favour the beaches west of Melbourne.

Friday then looks clean everywhere early with local morning offshores, tending NW mid-late morning on the Mornington Peninsula and then weak SW into the mid-late afternoon.

Saturday morning is looking average with the swell bottoming out, and an onshore change is now due just after dawn, so it's not a good surf day at all.

This change will be linked to a very strong and powerful polar frontal progression developing through the Southern Ocean later this week.

On Monday we talked about a pro-longed and healthy polar front moving in from the Heard Island region, generating a moderate sized SW groundswell for Sunday.

This system is now forecast to strengthen significantly south-west of Tassie on Friday, aiming an additional fetch of severe-gale SW winds through our southern swell window.

A mix of long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell along with closer-range S/SW swell are due to build through Sunday, peaking into the afternoon to a good 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula but with poor and fresh S/SE winds.

Monday looks the pick with easing surf from 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively along with improving winds as a surface trough sitting to our east, drifts south likely resulting in winds swinging NE to N, but we'll confirm this Friday.

Longer term there's nothing standout on the cards for next week, but check back Friday for any change to the outlook.