Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 29th February)

Best Days: Tuesday and Wednesday morning east of Melbourne and other exposed breaks, Friday morning keen surfers

Recap

Friday's strong kick in swell eased back a bit into Saturday morning, but a reinforcing W/SW swell kept 3-4ft waves hitting most spots, with the odd bigger bomb at Bells and Winki. Conditions were favourable and clean early, with a weak onshore developing through the morning and remaining workable into the afternoon. The Mornington Peninsula offered plenty of size but limited options.

Sunday was smaller but cleaner with easing 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast, average to the east again.

Today a new SW groundswell has come in as expected (produced by a healthy fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales), but so has an onshore breeze with bumpy but workable surf in the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

This week (Mar 1 – 4)

This morning's good pulse of SW groundswell is expected to start easing this afternoon, and the Cape Sorell wave buoy readings off the Tassie coast show this occurring already. A further drop will be seen through tomorrow but with local offshore N'ly winds. The Surf Coast is only due to offer small 2ft waves, with better 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions should also remain favourable into the afternoon with only weak and mid-afternoon sea breezes due.

Clean conditions are due again Wednesday morning but there'll be no size or power left in the swell, with tiny waves on the Surf Coast and 2ft leftovers on the Mornington Peninsula.

Thursday will be a write-off with a weak onshore change during Thursday due to linger as the swell remains tiny.

A new mix of W/SW groundswell as due into the afternoon, peaking Friday morning generated by back to back mid-latitude fronts.

An initial weak front pushing under WA will lay the path for a secondary stronger and more favourably aligned frontal system for our region.

The Surf Coast should see 2-3ft surf off this progression, with the odd bigger one at swell magnets. The Mornington Peninsula should offer 4-6ft sets, but winds set to linger from the SE through the morning.

This weekend onwards (Mar 5 onwards)

A slightly stronger onshore breeze is due Saturday morning as Friday's W/SW groundswell eases, with cleaner small surf on Sunday best suited to the Mornington Peninsula with NE breezes. Sets are only due to be around the 3ft range, so it's not looking too special.

Longer term we've got some stronger and sustained polar frontal activity on the cards from later this week through the weekend and earlier next. This looks to create moderate pulses of SW groundswell from early next week onwards, but what could be persisting S/SW winds. More on this Wednesday.