Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 14th December)

Best Days: Monday both coasts, Tuesday and Wednesday east of Melbourne

Recap

Fun weekend of waves with a good new W/SW swell Saturday to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula with morning offshores west of Melbourne.

The swell eased back to 2-3ft and 4-6ft respectively yesterday morning as light local offshore winds created good conditions across most regions.

Today smaller surf was seen with a light onshore breeze, creating OK conditions for keen surfers east of Melbourne, but winds have since increased further, writing off the surf for the rest of the day.

This week (Dec 15 - 18)

Unfortunately the week ahead is looking real sub-par. There's no significant swell due and winds will be less than ideal and onshore until Thursday/Friday.

Similar sized sets are due tomorrow morning across both coasts to 1-2ft and 3ft+ respectively before easing through the day, further into Wednesday. This will leave no decent size on the Surf Coast and inconsistent 2ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds both tomorrow and Wednesday are average, continuing from the SE for the most part leaving no decent options.

A very small kick in W/SW swell is due Thursday from a small and weak pre-frontal fetch of W/NW winds under WA, but we'll be lucky to see anything above 1ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Early E/NE winds are due to swing more N/NE through the morning ahead of afternoon sea breezes, so this will be the first day to head for a wave east of Melbourne this week.

A slightly stronger but inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due Friday from a broad but weakening low to the south-west of WA.

The Surf Coast will be lucky to see 2ft sets, while the Mornington Peninsula will probably be around 3-4ft and with favourable local offshore winds. A weak change may be seen through the afternoon, so make the most of the morning.

This weekend onwards (Dec 19 onwards)

Friday's inconsistent and small W/SW groundswell is due to ease through Saturday with light local offshore winds through the morning, bottoming out Sunday morning with W'ly winds.

Longer term there's some good indications of a strong mid-latitude low developing under the country this weekend, pushing in early next week, bringing a moderate to possibly large sized W/SW groundswell. We'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.