Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 7th December)

Best Days: Thursday Surf Coast, Friday morning Surf Coast, early Saturday Surf Coast, Sunday both coasts

Recap

Not the best weekend of waves with generally average conditions and no real size on the Surf Coast, while protected spots were best east of Melbourne.

Today a weak 1-2ft of SE windswell was breaking across the Surf Coast, with peaky and average 2ft waves to the east.

This week (Dec 8 - 11)

Winds will improve tomorrow and swing offshore across both coasts, but swell wise, there'll be hardly anything in the water.

The SE windswell will fade as winds swing offshore, dropping from a tiny 1-1.5ft on the Surf Coast, while the Mornington Peninsula will struggle to see anything above 1-2ft.

A late afternoon onshore change is due and this will be related to a strengthening mid-latitude low directly south-west of us, aiming a fetch of developing W/SW gales through our western swell window.

A building windswell is due through Wednesday ahead of a better groundswell pulse Thursday to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula (possibly a little undersized at dawn). W/NW tending W/SW winds are due Wednesday but with no real size until late, while Thursday is the pick with a morning NW'ly ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

A drop in swell is due through Friday with early NW winds again, but there is an outside chance for a better N'ly on the Mornington Peninsula, which we'll review Wednesday.

Longer term into the weekend, a favourable tracking and persistent front moving in from the west all this week should produce a moderate sized W/SW swell for the weekend.

This system won't be overly strong, but should deliver fun 3ft waves across the Surf Coast Saturday, with the chance of the odd bigger bomb and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds look to be onshore from the SW, with a short-lived W/NW'ly around Torquay, ahead of better N/NE offshores for the Mornington Peninsula as the swell eases Sunday.