Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 30th November)

Best Days: Tuesday mid-morning onwards Surf Coast, early Wednesday keen surfers Torquay, Thursday morning Surf Coast, Friday and possibly Saturday morning east of Melbourne

Recap

Great waves all weekend across the Surf Coast with a clean easing 3-4ft of swell Saturday morning, backing off from 2-3ft Sunday morning. The Mornington Peninsula was best early Sunday with variable breezes and surf in the 4-5ft range.

This morning the Mornington Peninsula finally saw a better offshore breeze, with good sets in the 4ft range, while the Surf Coast was also continuing to offer 2ft sets. We should see the swell fade further through the day so make the most of the current conditions.

This week (Dec 1 - 4)

The Surf Coast should offer small clean waves tomorrow morning with a NW offshore and inconsistent kick in groundswell to 2ft on the sets through the day, building to 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula. An onshore change is due mid-afternoon so aim for the late-morning to early afternoon session.

Wednesday onwards should offer more size, with a relatively weak but persistent frontal system approaching from the west expected to kick up a new W/SW swell. The Surf Coast should build to 3-4ft through the day, with 6ft to possibly 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula but with poor and fresh to strong SW winds. There's a slim chance for an early W'ly around Torquay, but this will be when the swell is a little undersized.

Thursday looks much better with an early W/NW offshore and reinforcing W/SW swell generated from a weaker trailing front under the country Tuesday and Wednesday.

This should keep 3ft+ sets hitting the Surf Coast, with 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Surf through the morning as S/SW winds will develop from late morning.

Winds will swing around to the NE on Friday favouring the Mornington Peninsula, but the swell may still be a touch too big with easing 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend onwards (Dec 5 onwards)

Friday's swell will continue to ease through Saturday morning but the timing of an onshore S/SE change is still being disputed. The American model has it only pushing in mid-late morning with good winds for the Mornington Peninsula early, but the European version has it in at dawn, so we'll have another look at this Wednesday.

An inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell is due into the afternoon but with no major size, and with strong E/SE winds developing Sunday, options will be limited further.

Longer term there's nothing significant at all with a blocking setup establishing through the weekend, but more on this Wednesday.