Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 9th October)

Best Days: Both coasts over the weekend, possibly both coasts dawn Monday, east of Melbourne from Wednesday

Recap

Poor conditions across both coasts yesterday with moderate onshore SE winds, while today, much cleaner but wobbly/lumpy waves are breaking across both regions with a variable tending locally offshore wind.

The surf was a touch under expectations with 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast and 5ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, but this has offered fun options across both regions.

This weekend and next week (Oct 10 – 16)

There's been no real change to the weekend's outlook with a new pulse of W/SW groundswell due through tomorrow with variable winds across both coasts, likely tending NE on the Mornington Peninsula. The Surf Coast should see fun 2-3ft waves through most of the day, easing from 2ft Sunday with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from 3-4ft+ Sunday.

Winds Sunday look to be variable again, but light from the N/NE on the Mornington Peninsula and NW on the Surf Coast ahead of a fresh W/SW change through the afternoon.

This change will be linked to a deepening surface trough moving in from the west, with variable winds likely at dawn Monday ahead of the fresh S'ly during the morning, creating poor conditions for the rest of the day and into Tuesday as winds linger from the S/SE.

A new fun W/SW groundswell is due Monday from another W/NW fetch swinging in under the country over the coming days, with 2-3ft sets due on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Come Wednesday, winds are due to become more variable again through the morning, but the swell will be small and easing, best on the Mornington Peninsula to 3-4ft or so (1-2ft on the Surf Coast).

Later in the day but more so Thursday another pulse of W/SW groundswell from a flurry of W/NW wind activity is due across the region, with this swell looking to be a touch smaller than Monday's.

Conditions will however be great for the Mornington Peninsula with N/NE offshores, with weak sea breezes likely into the afternoon.

Longer term we may see some better frontal activity moving through our swell window later next week, but the models are diverging on this at the current moment. Have a check back here Monday regarding this and in the meantime, enjoy a fun weekend of waves!