Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 16th September)

Best Days: Thursday morning Surf Coast, early Friday Surf Coast, Saturday morning both coasts, Sunday morning both coasts, Monday, Tuesday morning Surf Coast

Recap

Workable but far from special 2ft waves around Torquay yesterday morning with bumpy 3-4ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula, deteriorating further through the day.

Today conditions were clean on the Surf Coast through the morning with a good building SW groundswell coming in around 2ft to occasionally 3ft, with larger bumpy 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. We should see the swell reach 3-4ft and 6ft to possibly 8ft respectively this afternoon with workable conditions after a weak SW change.

This week and weekend (Sep 17 – 20)

This afternoon's increase in SW swell should hold into tomorrow morning to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to occasionally 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing back into the afternoon. Morning W/NW winds will favour the Surf Coast again, swinging W/SW-SW through the afternoon.

Our secondary slightly smaller SW groundswell pulses for Friday and Saturday are still on track, generated by a strong pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales pushing in from the Indian Ocean.

This should keep sets to 3ft hitting the Surf Coast, and more the 5-6ft range on the Mornington Peninsula Friday and Saturday morning, easing into the afternoon.

Winds on Friday look to be favourable for the Surf Coast again with light SW tending S'ly breezes across most locations, lighter and more W/NW early around Torquay. Saturday should then see variable breezes, tending NE, favouring the Mornington Peninsula, but the Surf Coast will still be fun early.

Into Sunday a pulse of W/SW groundswell is due from another strong pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales ahead of a stronger severe-gale to storm-force W/SW fetch south-west of WA. This should keep 2-3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast and 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula (with local offshore winds and weak sea breezes), but the stronger W/SW groundswell for Monday has been delayed a little and also downgraded with the front weakening while pushing into WA Friday evening.

This will result in an inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell building later in the day Monday likely to 3ft+ to possibly 4ft at swell magnets on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula by dark.

Winds are looking favourable for the late kick though with morning local offshore breezes due to only tend variable into the afternoon.

A drop in size is then due Tuesday from 3ft and 6ft respectively ahead of a late kick in more consistent and better SW groundswell. This is forecast to be generated by a secondary vigorous polar low tracking east through our swell window over the weekend while generating winds in the severe-gale to storm-force range.

More size to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but again only late Tuesday, easing Wednesday. This will be with what looks to be poor winds in the wake of a change during the morning Tuesday, with fresh to strong E'ly breezes Wednesday and Thursday. We'll have a closer look at this on Friday though.