Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 17th August)

Best Days: Tuesday morning Surf Coast, Wednesday both coasts, Thursday both coasts (beaches to west), Friday both coasts, Saturday and Sunday exposed breaks

Recap

Great weekend of waves across the Surf Coast with a clean building swell Saturday, easing through Sunday as offshore winds persisted. The Mornington Peninsula offered plenty of size with wobbly but improving conditions Saturday as light W/NW winds became variable and then early N'ly winds Sunday ahead of a shift to the NW creating deteriorating conditions.

Today a large SW groundswell is on the build and winds have gone onshore early across both coasts leaving average options across the state.

This week (Aug 18 - 21)

Today's large pulse of SW groundswell was generated by a vigorous polar frontal system pushing up towards us yesterday, and it's now weakening while pushing further east.

We'll see a drop in swell through tomorrow down from 4-6ft across exposed breaks on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula with early W/NW breezes likely west of Melbourne. The Mornington Peninsula is due to see SW winds continuing.

Wednesday will be great across both coasts with local offshore breezes, tending NE into the afternoon and a further easing in swell from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Thursday's pulse of S/SW groundswell is still on track, but the size has been upgraded with the polar frontal system developing late in our swell window and producing it being stronger and better aligned for us.

This swell should fill in Thursday and peak through the middle of the day/early afternoon with 3-4ft sets due on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will be best for the beaches on the Surf Coast and spots east of Melbourne with a fresh N/NE tending N'ly breeze.

Come Friday fresh to strong N/NW winds (N'ly on the Mornington Peninsula) will favour both coasts as the swell eases.

As touch on last update, a broad blocking cut-off low will limit the swell potential for our state into the weekend, with a secondary cut-off forming over the weekend continuing this block into next week.

Winds will be generally favourable for both coasts and the surf best east of Melbourne with background levels of swell to 3-4ft or so (small on the Surf Coast).

Some new long-range W/SW groundswell is due mid-week but we'll have a closer look at this Wednesday.