Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 12th August)

Best Days: Later tomorrow Surf Coast, Friday Surf Coast, Saturday both coasts, Sunday Surf Coast

Recap

Fun clean waves across the Surf Coast to 2-3ft yesterday with improving conditions on the Mornington Peninsula as morning N/NW winds swung more N'ly through the day.

Today we're in between swells with inconsistent and clean 1-2ft leftovers on the Surf Coast and clean 4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

This week and weekend (Aug 13 - 16)

Our better pulse of W/SW groundswell for tomorrow (compared to Tuesday's) is still on track, with the swell being generated by a vigorous front pushing up towards WA and then through the Bight the last few days.

A reinforcing SW groundswell due for Friday has been brought forward to later tomorrow afternoon, with the polar front generating it racing up and towards us today.

The W/SW groundswell should offer inconsistent 3ft sets at exposed breaks on the Surf Coast tomorrow, with an afternoon kick to 3-4ft with the new SW swell. The Mornington Peninsula should see 6ft sets, bumping to 6ft+ later in the day.

Winds will however be an issue with an SW change due to push through around 7am, with W/NW winds before this. The change will be shallow though, and another approaching front pushing in from the west should tip winds back to the W/NW later in the day, so an evening wave on the Surf Coast could be an option.

Friday should see the swells easing from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula with NW tending W'ly winds.

Our strong SW groundswell due over the weekend is also still on track, with a broad and vigorous polar frontal progression producing a fetch of pre-frontal W/NW and then post-frontal W/SW gales while moving under the country today through Friday.

A moderate to large SW groundswell will result, building through Saturday from 3ft on the Surf Coast during the morning to the 4ft range into the mid-late afternoon and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

A drop in size is then due Sunday from 3-4ft and 6ft+ respectively, smaller into Monday morning.

Conditions are looking great for both coasts with variable breezes Saturday and then N/NW tending light variable NW winds on Sunday (possibly holding from the N/NW all day east of Melbourne).

Next week onwards (Aug 17 onwards)

Early Monday will start slow, but a good new S/SW groundswell is due to build through the afternoon from a strengthening polar front pushing up towards us through Saturday evening and Sunday.

The Surf Coast should kick back to 3-4ft+ later in the afternoon with 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula but with onshore SW winds associated with the frontal system. Tuesday looks dicey as the swell eases with S'ly breezes, but we'll confirm this Friday.