Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 29th June)

Best Days: Tuesday morning and Wednesday on the Surf Coast, Friday morning Surf Coast, Saturday morning Surf Coast, Sunday Surf Coast

Recap

A late pulse of small but ultra-long period W/SW groundswell seen Friday peaked through Saturday with inconsistent but strong 3-4ft sets across the Surf Coast and larger waves on the Mornington Peninsula under favourable winds (best through the morning east of Melbourne).

Sunday morning started around a similar size, if not slightly bigger with 5ft sets across the Surf Coast and conditions were again great with offshore NW winds. An expected late kick in more consistent and larger W/SW groundswell from a vigorous polar low tracking quickly in from the west over the weekend came in around expectations with reports of easy 6ft sets at some spots and larger 8ft bombs on dark across the Surf Coast. The buoy data matches this with Point Nepean kicking to just under 4m Significant Wave Heights with peak periods above 18s. Conditions remained favourable into the evening as well as winds became variable from the west.

This morning the swell was still large and strong early across the Surf Coast with 4-6ft sets under offshore winds (8-10ft on the Mornington Peninsula). The swell will drop steadily through the day though as winds remain offshore.

This week (Jun 30 – Jul 3)

The swell should ease further into tomorrow, but not drop below 3ft across the Surf Coast, with 6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula as a reinforcing W/SW groundswell fills in.

This swell was generated by a pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales, and will be replaced by a stronger pulse Wednesday morning, from a broader and stronger pre-frontal W/NW fetch currently south of the Bight.

A moderate sized SW groundswell should be generated, peaking Wednesday morning to 3-4ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula before easing into the afternoon.

Winds will be best for the Surf Coast and offshore from the W/NW tomorrow morning ahead of a shallow W/SW change late morning/midday and then NW all day Wednesday (likely N/NW early on the Mornington Peninsula).

From Thursday and into the weekend we'll see all the frontal activity shift into our south-western swell window as a new node of the Long Wave Trough starts to develop just east of us, and across the entrance to the southern Tasman Sea.

This will direct a series of strong cold fronts initially up and into us (Thursday) before the activity shifts more into Tasmania and a touch further east, more in our southern swell window.

Thursday's front should bring with it a moderate to large kick in SW groundswell, building towards a peak through the afternoon to 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula but a strong SW change associated with the swell will create poor conditions. The Surf Coast may see an early W'ly but the swell won't be fully there yet.

A drop in size is due Friday and lingering SW winds are due across most spots although the Surf Coast should see an early W/NW'ly.

This weekend onwards (Jul 4 onwards)

Thursday afternoon's swell is due to continue to ease into Saturday with favourable and fresh N/NW winds ahead of a S'ly change through the day, with some strong S/SW groundswell due into Sunday.
This will be from the polar frontal activity shifting more into our southern swell window, with a strong low forming south-southwest of WA Thursday and then swinging in and up into Tassie towards the weekend.

A solid 4-5ft+ of S/SW groundswell is due across the Surf Coast with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under N/NW tending NW winds. We'll have a closer look at the specifics of this swell on Wednesday though.