Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 17th June)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday

Recap

Tiny poor waves yesterday morning across the Surf Coast before a slight lift in swell and better offshores creating fun 1-2ft surf into the afternoon. The Mornington Peninsula was around a clean 2-3ft and remained so into the afternoon while building a touch.

This morning the Surf Coast was clean again with a bit more swell than expected with 2-3ft sets reported around Torquay, while the Mornington Peninsula remained only in the small 3-4ft range. Make the most of this morning as a freshening onshore is due into the mid-late afternoon.

This week and weekend (Jun 18 – 21)

There's plenty of swell due into tomorrow with a strong long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell due to peak mixed in with a junky SE windswell.

Unfortunately conditions will be poor with a fresh and gusty E/SE wind across all locations.

Friday is still looking dicey with a lingering onshore S/SE'ly likely across all coasts, but the Torquay region may see an early variable breeze, although latest updates have lessened this chance. So I'd leave it.

Therefore our focus turns towards the weekend, and in short it's looking pretty damn fun!

The large and powerful SW groundswell due Saturday is still on track with the intense polar low generating the swell, already producing a fetch of storm-force W'ly winds in our far swell window, registered by satellite.

This polar low is continuing east while aiming a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds through our swell window, generating a large and inconsistent SW groundswell for Saturday morning. Exposed spots on the Surf Coast should offer infrequent but strong 5-6ft sets with the possibility of the rare bigger bomb, with 8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

A drop in size is due into the afternoon and then further Sunday.

Winds should ease and tend variable on Saturday morning and remain so all day, creating clean glassy conditions with some slight wobble/lump likely with no decent offshore wind.

Sunday should then offer straighter surf with a strengthening N/NW'ly, that should hold frm the N/NE to N'th all day east of Melbourne.

Next week onwards (Jun 22 onwards)

The weekend's swell will continue to ease into Monday but a new smaller and inconsistent SW groundswell is due to peak early morning.

This will be generated by a tight but intense polar low firing up on the tail of the broader system generating Saturday's swell, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds aimed through our swell window.

An inconsistent but good 3ft to possibly 4ft of swell is due at swell magnets on the Surf Coast dawn Monday with 5-6ft sets to the east under stronger N/NW winds ahead of an afternoon S/SW change.

This onshore change will be linked to a vigorous polar frontal progression and large SW groundswell for Tuesday, but unfortunately winds look to linger onshore in the wake of Monday's change.

The swell looks to come in around the 5-6ft range on the Surf Coast at this stage but with a fresh SW'ly. We may see winds tip back to the W/NW late in the day as another strong approaching front pushes in from the west, but we'll have to review this again on Friday.