Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 12th June)

Best Days: Both coasts all weekend, exposed coasts Monday through Wednesday

Recap

Clean good 3-4ft sets across swell magnets on the Surf Coast yesterday morning, easing a bit into the afternoon with 4-6ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula.

Today the swell was a smaller but still fun 2-3ft on the Surf Coast with 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under local offshore winds. The swell hold all day as a new SW groundswell pulse arrives later in the day and winds tend light E'ly.

This weekend and next week (Jun 13 – 19)

Today's late pulse of SW groundswell should hold into tomorrow morning with 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. A slight drop in size is due into the afternoon and further down from 2ft and 3-5ft respectively Sunday morning.

Conditions should be great across both coasts all weekend with local offshore tending variable winds each day.

Into next week you'll have to focus your attention to exposed spots across the state as the swell bottoms out. Monday is expected to be the low point and the Mornington Peninsula will offer the best waves with a N/NE tending E/SE breeze.

A slight kick in long-range and small SW groundswell is due through Tuesday, best on the Mornington Peninsula again to 3ft on the sets with NE tending E/NE winds. The Surf Coast will be tiny and bumpy.

Another slightly bigger but very inconsistent SW groundswell is due Wednesday from weak and unfavourably aligned polar frontal activity south-southwest of WA. Bigger 3-4ft sets are likely on the Mornington Peninsula under funkier variable tending S'ly winds.

Late in the day a very long-range and strong long-period SW groundswell may be seen, peaking through Thursday across both coasts.

This is being produced by a strong and broad polar frontal progression that's fired up south-east of South Africa, with it due to continue east over the coming days before breaking down south-west of WA tomorrow evening.

The size off this swell will be limited with infrequent 2ft waves due across the Surf Coast with the odd 3ft bomb at swell magnets, with 3-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula with the rare 6ft bomb.

Conditions are looking dicey though with a deepening low pressure system off the East Coast expected to direct a strengthening fetch of SE winds into us, kicking up a larger increase in SE windswell, but we'll have to have a closer look at this on Monday as some of the other models have the low holding further east with W/NW winds. Have a great weekend!