Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 8th May)

Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, Sunday morning, later Monday, Tuesday morning

Recap

Another excellent day of clean 4-6ft reef waves across the Surf Coast, becoming slightly wind affected into the afternoon. Today the swell has held the 4-6ft range with a perfect offshore NW wind, and we should see conditions remaining clean into the afternoon as the swell starts to drop.

This weekend and next week (May 9 - 15)

Today a mix of W/SW and SW groundswell are in the water, generated by a vigorous polar low that was positioned to our south-west yesterday.

This low has since moved out of our swell window but a new strong polar low is currently moving into its place.

With this we should see today's mix of swells easing into this afternoon and early tomorrow morning before a new pulse of large SW groundswell builds through the afternoon.

This should see the Surf Coast building back to 4-6ft through the late afternoon from the smaller 4ft range through the morning and then peak overnight. The Mornington Peninsula should build to the 8-10ft range late in the day but conditions will be poor with a persistent and fresh NW wind.

Saturday's late kick in swell will be replaced by a new large W/SW groundswell Sunday afternoon and then bigger pulse Monday morning.

Again these will be generated by a couple of vigorous frontal systems pushing up and into us through Saturday and Sunday, with the Surf Coast due to build from 4-5ft Sunday morning with 6ft sets showing later in the day. Winds will be good through the morning with a fresh to strong NW breeze ahead of a W/SW change through the day.

Come Monday we're now looking at larger 6ft+ surf west of Melbourne (8ft sets at Bells and Winki) with 10-12ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula as a vigorous cold front slams into us overnight and early in the morning. The only problem looks to be the winds and they're due to swing strong to gale-force onshore from the W/SW around 7am, easing through the day. This will create generally poor conditions across all locations. Late in the day we'll likely see winds tend back to the W/NW, so keep an eye on conditions for a late paddle.

Tuesday should be smaller on the backside of the swell under strengthening W/NW winds.

Now, into Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday the American model GFS is going ballistic with a very strong and intense cut-off low currently forecast to project a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds up and into us. If this came off in its current form we'd see 8-10ft surf on the Surf Coast overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday, but the other models EC and ACCESS are showing a lot tamer system.

With this in mind I'll keep a reign on the forecast expectations for later Tuesday and Wednesday and put it more in the 6ft range again. Well have to have a last look at this on Monday though. Winds look average in any case and from the SW, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!