Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 6th May)

Best Days: Every day on the Surf Coast

Recap

While yesterday was expected to be the smallest day of the forecast period, it wasn't expected to be as small as it was across the Surf Coast all day. The surf struggled around the inconsistent 2ft range with strong to gale-force offshore winds, kicking a little later in the day. The Mornington Peninsula had more size but poor conditions.

An intense mid-latitude low to our west that was expected to produce a late kick in swell, initially generated a less than favourable fetch of storm-force W/NW winds, but behind this a better aligned fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds has generated a much better groundswell today.

The Surf Coast is offering clean pumping 4-5ft waves with bigger sets at Bells and Winki while the Mornington Peninsula was in the 6-8ft range with a fresh to strong NW breeze. Conditions should remain clean all day on the Surf Coast as winds tend W/NW and the swell remains steady.

This week (May 7 - 8)

We've got plenty more swell to come over the coming days as a continuous flurry of strong fronts push through our swell window from today through until early next week.

A vigorous system pushing into us today will keep the surf up around a similar size to this morning into this afternoon, with tomorrow due to hang in the 4-6ft range across the Surf Coast most of the day at exposed breaks. A slight drop in size is then due from 4-5ft Friday morning. The Mornington Peninsula should see 6-8ft+ waves tomorrow, easing back from 6-8ft Friday morning.

Conditions tomorrow will be best in protected spots with a fresh to strong W/NW tending W'ly breeze across the Surf Coast, while Friday looks great with a fresh NW-W/NW breeze all day.

This weekend onwards (May 9 onwards)

A larger SW groundswell due over the weekend has been downgraded a touch with the strong polar low due to generate the swell now coming in a lot weaker.

Instead we're expected to see a pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales followed by a secondary fetch of W/SW winds behind it, generating a building SW groundswell Saturday, reaching 3-5ft through the afternoon across the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

The swell should ease a touch into Sunday morning ahead of another stronger increase in size through Sunday afternoon and then Monday morning.

This should be generated by a couple of stronger fronts pushing into us from Friday through the weekend, kicking the Surf Coast back to 4-5ft through the afternoon with the possible bigger set late in the day, with the Mornington Peninsula kicking to 6-8ft+.

Monday morning should then reveal easing 5-6ft waves on the Surf Coast and 8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing back a touch further into Tuesday.

Winds will remain favourable for the Surf Coast and be from the NW to W/NW through the weekend, with Monday and Tuesday seeing W/NW tending W/SW breezes. Longer term there's plenty of swell due for the rest of next week, but more on this Friday.