Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 1st April)

Best Days: Sunday morning both coasts, Monday morning Surf Coast

Recap

A secondary strong pulse of SW groundswell pushed in yesterday with pumping 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast with the odd bigger bomb, while the Mornington Peninsula was clean and in the 6ft+ range. Sea breezes created average conditions from mid-afternoon.

Today the swell was easing back from a smaller and inconsistent 3ft on the Surf Coast with 4ft bombs at 13th Beach and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula under local offshores which favoured the beaches. This swell will continue to ease into the afternoon as winds swing N/NW, favouring the Surf Coast reefs.

This week (Apr 2 – 3)

The end of the week is poor with a strong onshore change due to move through just before dawn with strong but easing S/SW winds due all day tomorrow, swinging S/SE but remaining fresh Friday morning.

A moderate S/SW windswell will build across both coasts and then ease off through Friday but with no quality at all.

This weekend onwards (Apr 4 onwards)

Our new SW groundswell due through Saturday is on track, with a strong and broad pre-frontal fetch of W/NW winds developing south of WA today, pushing east towards Tassie through tomorrow.

The swell will be inconsistent but fun, building to 2-3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast through the day (possibly a touch smaller at dawn) and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Right behind this fetch of pre-frontal W/NW winds will be a better aligned fetch of W/SW gales, pushing east along the Polar Shelf.

A secondary inconsistent SW groundswell should arrive from this source, arriving through Sunday and pulsing to a better 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds on Saturday will improve slightly but remain average for most breaks with a moderate to fresh SE tending E/SE breeze during the morning, favouring protected locations east of Melbourne.

Sunday looks to be the pick of the weekend as the surface trough responsible for the poor winds drifts south-east resulting in winds swinging light offshore from the N/NW across the Surf Coast. Locations east of Melbourne should see early N/NE winds before shifting more N/NW through the late morning, while the afternoon looks average across both coasts as a shallow SW change pushes through.

Two more pulses of inconsistent SW groundswell are due into Monday and Tuesday next week, the first from another small polar frontal system pushing along the Polar Shelf, coming in at 3ft across the Surf Coast Monday morning and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Tuesday's will be from the final polar front in the progression along the shelf, and should build back to 3ft+ across the Surf Coast during Tuesday afternoon and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but winds will be poor after an onshore change Monday afternoon, persisting from the S/SE Tuesday.

The best time to surf will be Monday morning with early W/NW winds across the Surf Coast before the change pushes through.

The rest of next week looks average with a possible low forming and stalling off the East Coast, directing persistent fresh SE winds into the state.

We may see an improvement in conditions Friday, but we'll have a closer look at this, this coming Friday.