Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 18th February)

Best Days: Thursday morning east of Melbourne, early Friday both coasts, Saturday morning both coasts, Sunday morning both coasts, Monday morning Surf Coast

Recap

Some better size across the coast yesterday but with onshore winds, although they did become lighter through the morning on the Surf Coast. Today the swell was smaller and with a moderate to fresh S/SW breeze, continuing to create average conditions.

This week and weekend (Feb 19 - 22)

Tomorrow morning will start out small and slow, but a new very inconsistent SW groundswell should arrive through the morning, building to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast through the afternoon with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds are expected to swing from an early E'ly around to the E/NE through the morning, tending variable before SE sea breezes kick in. Therefore a mid-late morning/midday surf east of Melbourne would be the pick.

The groundswell should drop back through Friday morning under early variable winds (likely tending locally offshore), but we'll see a shallow S'ly change push through during the morning at some stage, creating average conditions into the afternoon.

Our secondary strong pulse of SW groundswell due into Friday evening is still on track with a strong polar low firing up further east than the last system, currently generating a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our swell window. The low will weaken through today leaving a strong long-period SW groundswell in its wake, kicking to a solid 3ft+ by dark Friday on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula ahead of a peak overnight.

Saturday morning should still offer good 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula early ahead of a drop through the afternoon and further Sunday from 2ft+ and 4-5ft respectively.

Winds on Saturday should improve further, swinging N/NE across both regions through the morning and even N'ly on the Surf Coast before afternoon sea breezes kick in, while Sunday should see N/NE winds to the east of Melbourne and N/NW winds to the west through the morning ahead of another shallow S'ly change through the afternoon.

Therefore the weekend is looking good both mornings for a surf with plenty of options opening up depending on your ability.

Next Monday onwards (Mon 23 onwards)

As touched on last update, a strengthening node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough is forecast to move in from the west later this week, reaching a peak in intensity as it stalls over the Bight on Sunday evening.

With this development we'll see a vigorous polar low developing south-west of WA in a similar position to the system generating later Friday's swell, with the low expected to stall, aiming a persistent and broad fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our south-western swell window. This will then be followed up by a weaker fetch of broad SW winds pushing up through the Bight early next week.

What should result is a strong and prolonged SW groundswell event, with an initial inconsistent pulse arriving Monday afternoon, with a secondary more consistent pulse for Tuesday.

The distance between the low and our coasts will limit the size of this swell, with the Surf Coast due to 3-4ft+ during the afternoon with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, dropping back to 3ft to occasionally 4ft and 6ft+ respectively Tuesday.

Winds look favourable and offshore from the NW on Monday morning before the SW groundswell really kicks, with a smaller W/SW swell in the water, and come the evening when the most size is due a strong S/SW change looks to move through. This will persist from the S'th with strength into Tuesday and then SE Wednesday.

So even though there'll be plenty of size, clean surfing options will be severely limited.

Have a check back here on Friday for any change to the wind outlook from Monday through Wednesday though.