Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 11th February)

Best Days: Friday morning in protected spots east of Melbourne, Saturday morning beaches both coasts, Sunday morning both coasts

Recap

Yesterday played out pretty much to plan with a new pulse of SW groundswell mixed in with SE windswell across the Surf Coast as early E/NE winds on the Mornington Peninsula swung around to the NE mid-morning and held through until the early afternoon. The Surf Coast was OK but not that great early with lingering onshore winds from overnight but these tended variable creating fun peaks across the beaches before fresh sea breezes surfaced.

Today the swell is easing with light variable and locally offshore breezes across most regions offering fun waves ahead of a strong SW change expected this afternoon.

This week (Feb 12 - 13)

Later this afternoon a good new W/SW groundswell is due and this will be followed by a stronger pulse through tomorrow, but conditions will unfortunately be a write-off with fresh onshore S/SE winds lingering in the wake of this afternoon's change. These winds will strengthen from the E/SE towards the evening and remain strong all night, kicking up 2-3ft of E/SE windswell for the Surf Coast Friday morning.

There'll be similar levels of easing SW groundswell in any case (bigger and dropping from 4-6ft) and winds will be workable in protected spots with a fresh to strong E/NE cross-offshore.

This weekend onwards (Feb 14 onwards)

Saturday should become much cleaner as the W/SW swell continues to ease from 3-4ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula and 2ft on the Surf Coast under an offshore N/NE breeze that's due to tend variable ahead of funky onshore winds into the afternoon.

Sunday morning should also be clean, with a small and inconsistent reinforcing W/SW groundswell keeping 2ft sets hitting the Surf Coast and 3-4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds look to be favourable for the beaches on both coasts with a N/NE'ly that is likely to tend variable ahead of a late change.

Monday is worth giving a miss with fresh SW winds lingering in the wake of Sunday's late change.

A good new W/SW groundswell should build through the day though, generated by a strong but relatively small mid-latitude low firing up south-west of WA Thursday and pushing east while direct a fetch of SW gales through our western swell window.

The wind direction isn't great but the good track through our swell window right up until it passes across Tassie early Monday morning should result in a moderate sized W/SW groundswell being generated.

A mid-late afternoon kick in size is due Monday to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula ahead of a peak overnight. Tuesday should then see the swell easing away from a slightly smaller size along with SE winds.

The next decent surf day looks to be Thursday next week with a new long-range SW groundswell under NE winds, but we'll have to have another look at this on Friday.