Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 3rd December)

Best Days: Thursday morning east of Melbourne

Recap

The Surf Coast was clean yesterday morning but small to tiny with exposed breaks offering the only decent waves. The Mornington Peninsula was bigger but bumpy with the west in the wind.

Today a slight lift in long-range SW groundswell was seen but the Mornington Peninsula offered the best waves with a light morning E/SE breeze and 3ft sets, while the Surf Coast was a bumpy 1-2ft.

This week and weekend (Dec 4 - 7)

Tomorrow morning is the pick of the week with the swell staying around the inconsistent 3ft range on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula as winds swing E/NE through the morning before reverting back to the SE through the late morning as a trough sitting to our west slips east.

There'll still be a lot of peakiness and wobble to conditions though from overnight onshores, so keep your expectations low and you should have fun.

Friday will be poor as the trough stalls to our east and deepens, directing strong E/SE winds into both coasts which will then persist into the weekend kicking up moderate levels of SE windswell across the Surf Coast.

At this stage the Surf Coast should build to a junky 2-3ft Saturday and persist in the 3ft+ range Sunday before easing off through the late afternoon.

Next week onwards (Dec 8 onwards)

The trough is forecast to weaken into Sunday evening and drift away to the south-east resulting in winds backing off into Monday but lingering from the E/SE keeping conditions average across both coasts.

A mix of easing SE windswell and small SW groundswell to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula is due, but only selected protected beaches will be worth surfing.

Winds are due to swing back to the west Tuesday and Wednesday but with no real decent groundswell for the Surf Coast.

Longer term there's still nothing major on the cards, but we'll review this again Friday.