Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 20th October)

Best Days: Tuesday morning east of Melbourne, Wednesday morning east of Melbourne, Friday morning east of Melbourne, Saturday morning exposed spots

Recap

The beaches across both coasts were the pick on Saturday with an easing 2-3ft of SW groundswell on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula under winds from the northern quadrant.

Sunday was tiny and only decent on the Surf Coast for beginners at exposed beaches before a strong S/SW change moved through.

Today a new SW groundswell due to fill in through the day is hard to distinguish under fresh to strong SE winds, with poor conditions across all locations.

This week (Oct 21 - 24)

This week isn't looking too flash with only a couple of decent days in the mix working around easing swells and offshore winds.

Today's increase in long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell should back off through tomorrow and the Mornington Peninsula will offer the best of it with fresh NE winds before swinging more E'ly during the day. The beaches should be in the 4-5ft range, dropping back steadily through the day, down to 2-3ft Wednesday morning (the Surf Coast will be back to a tiny 1ft or so).

Winds on Wednesday will be good and locally offshore across both coasts before a shallow SW change moves through mid-late afternoon.

Thursday will be a day to miss as the surf remains tiny and winds onshore from the S/SW in the wake of Wednesday afternoon's change.

A new long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell similar to today's is expected to arrive later Thursday and ease through Friday across both coasts, generated south-west of WA by a vigorous polar low. Wind strengths were better than the system that generated today's swell, but the system has broken down far in our swell window.

This will result in a really inconsistent swell, coming in at an infrequent 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast Friday morning and 4-5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula before easing through the day.

Winds should clock around to the E/NE across the Mornington Peninsula, favouring the beaches before SE sea breezes kick in.

This weekend onwards (Oct 25 onwards)

Saturday will be the only day worth hunting surf, and you're best off hitting exposed locations across the state as the swell will be small and easing.

The Surf Coast is due to ease from an inconsistent 1-2ft, while the Mornington Peninsula should offer 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets early morning under favourable N/NE tending variable winds.

Sunday will be poor as a trough moves in from the west early morning bringing W'ly tending SW winds with no real decent swell.

Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards until at least mid-late next week as a series of blocking highs continue to develop to our west, putting a cap on any major storm activity, but we'll review this again Wednesday.