Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 17th October)

Best Days: Saturday both coasts, Sunday morning both coasts, Tuesday morning Mornington Peninsula, Wednesday morning Mornington Peninsula

Recap

The Surf Coast offered clean conditions across the protected reefs and beaches yesterday morning with a building swell to the 3ft range before winds turned onshore late morning.

Today a stronger SW groundswell has filled in with 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula, but early onshore winds created average conditions.

Winds have since eased creating improving conditions and we should see workable waves through the middle of day with variable breezes before a SE'ly kicks up again later in the day.

This weekend (Oct 18 - 19)

Tomorrow is still looking great across both coasts with today's spike in SW groundswell due to ease from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula under local offshores. A N/NW'ly should be seen across the Surf Coast at some stage through the morning (but the beaches will likely be the pick) before swinging possibly more N'ly through the afternoon, while the Mornington Peninsula will see N/NE winds all day.

Sunday will be small and only decent across the Surf Coast with a fresh N/NW'ly during the morning (possibly N'ly at dawn on the Mornington Peninsula) ahead of a fresh SW change mid-afternoon.

Next week onwards (Oct 20 onwards)

Monday's now looking like a day to miss with fresh and gusty SE winds expected to linger in the wake of Sunday's change and swing more E/SE through the day.

A new long-range SW groundswell due through the day has been upgraded in size a little, due to the fact that, although the polar front producing the swell is weakening while passing under WA today, it will re-strengthen while moving towards us on the weekend, topping up the dropping size.

We're expected to see waves more in the 3ft range now Monday across the Surf Coast with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula but Tuesday will be the best as the swell eases from 2-3ft and 4-5ft+ respectively under fresh NE winds, favouring the Mornington Peninsula.

Wednesday will be cleaner on the Surf Coast but the swell tiny with a fresh N/NW breeze ahead of a SW change. The Mornington Peninsula should be clean and small early and worth a look.

Thursday will be another day to miss as a surface trough moves across us bringing fresh S/SE winds with tiny levels of swell.

A new long-range SW groundswell similar but better than the swell due on Monday is due across the state later Thursday, peaking Friday.

This swell will be generated in a similar location to Monday's but the core winds and strength of the system will be greater, producing an inconsistent 3ft wave for the Surf Coast and 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds look a little average with a fresh E/NE'ly likely across the Mornington Peninsula with E'ly winds on the Mornington Peninsula, but we'll review this Monday. Have a great weekend!