Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 6th October)

Best Days: Every morning from Wednesday on the Surf Coast, Mornington Peninsula Thursday morning

Recap

Saturday was excellent across the Surf Coast and good east of Melbourne if you could find a spot handling the swell. Offshore winds persisted all day across both coasts as the strong S/SW swell eased.

Yesterday morning was OK for a period on the Surf Coast with an early W'ly before a change moved through writing off the surf for the rest of the day as a new SW groundswell filled in.

This groundswell has dropped away this morning, coming in smaller than expected with 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under variable winds from the north-eastern quadrant.

This week (Oct 7 - 10)

Tomorrow's not looking too flash as a strong W'ly change moves through, bringing with it a building short-range W/SW swell but only to a weak 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula through the day (smaller at dawn). Under those fresh W/NW tending W/SW winds there won't be too many options.

Some better W/SW groundswell is due in the wake of the frontal system for the rest of the week though generated by continued frontal activity under the country this week. The W/SW swell should come in at 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula on Wednesday, with a touch more size possible into the afternoon/evening.

Conditions should be good around Torquay with an offshore NW wind ahead of a shift to the SW through the afternoon. Thursday looks good as well and better for the Mornington Peninsula with a period of N/NW winds and easing swell from 3ft and 4-6ft respectively.

One final pulse of W/SW swell should keep 2ft waves hitting Torquay and 3ft sets at 13th Beach Friday with 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula as winds persist from the NW to SW.

This weekend onwards (Oct 11 onwards)

As talked about the last few updates, a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough is due to move in from the west later this week, bringing with it a flurry of broad and strong frontal activity.

With this we should see a large W/SW-SW groundswell developing for Sunday/Monday with what at this stage looks to be favourable NW to SW winds Sunday and then onshore S/SE winds Monday. We'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday though.