Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 28th July)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period until Friday afternoon and Saturday

Recap

A slight increase in W/SW groundswell was seen on Saturday to 2ft on the Surf Coast and either side of 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula but W/NW winds favoured locations west of Melbourne.

Into Sunday the beginnings of a new long-range W/SW groundswell were visible to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula under local offshores. The swell kicked even stronger into the afternoon but was very inconsistent with 3-5ft sets seen on the Surf Coast (above expectations) and 8ft bombs east of Melbourne.

The swell has dropped back a touch into this morning as unexpected N/NE winds favoured locations east of Melbourne and the Surf Coast beaches, but we should these swinging N/NW through the day, improving conditions on the Surf Coast reefs.

This week (Jul 29 - Aug 1)

Yesterday afternoon across the Surf Coast was just a warm up of what's to come!

This week is looking to be one of the best we've had all winter with a series of very strong, broad and back to back frontal systems currently set to push towards us under the influence of the Long Wave Trough.

Firstly, a vigorous mid-latitude front pushing under WA and through the Bight yesterday and today is generating a medium sized W/SW groundswell for tomorrow that should kick strongly into the afternoon. Swell magnets on the Surf Coast should build to 3-5ft into the late afternoon with much larger 6-8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula under strong N/NW tending NW winds.

Of greater importance is the active sea state the front responsible for tomorrow afternoon's swell generates; with the strongest of all the fronts due to move in and over the area, generating an additional fetch of severe-gale to sub-storm-force W/SW winds. Due to the pre existing sea state, open ocean swell wave heights will be amplified, with a large and powerful W/SW groundswell being the end result.

This swell should fill in Wednesday and peak through the middle of the day/afternoon, with 6ft+ surf west of Melbourne and 8ft bomb sets at Bells/Winki with larger 10-12ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds look excellent as well, holding fresh to strong from the NW all day, creating a full day of pumping surf.

A temporary drop in size is due into Thursday morning, but not as much as the models are indicating. Probably more so to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Into the afternoon though another pulse of large SW groundswell is due, generated on the back-side of the system generating Wednesday's swell and further away from us.

Due to these factors the swell is expected to be a touch less consistent and also a touch smaller. In saying this the Surf Coast should see 6ft sets again into the late afternoon with 8-10ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will remain good but not as perfect as Wednesday with a strong N/NW tending W/NW breeze.

Friday morning should still be solid and in the 5-6ft range across the Surf Coast, but you'll have to surf during the morning as a poor S'ly change is due through the day after morning W/NW winds (bringing an excellent week of surf to an end).

This weekend onwards (Aug 2 onwards)

One final pulse of large W/SW groundswell is due through Saturday morning, generated by the final blow in this strong frontal progression during the week.

A vigorous polar front projecting north-east towards SA will generate a fetch of severe-gale to sub-storm-force winds less than favourably though our swell window, but large levels of W/SW groundswell will still spread out radially from this storm and peak in the 6ft and 8-10ft range respectively but with onshore S/SW tending SW winds.

Sunday will be much better as the swell eases from 3-4ft and 6ft+ or so respectively under offshore NW tending W/NW winds, but we'll review this Wednesday. In the meantime, plan around the coming week!