Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 30th Jun)

Best Days: Tuesday morning around Torquay, Wednesday Surf Coast, Thursday both coasts (east of Melbourne into afternoon)

Recap

Saturday was great across the Surf Coast with a clean 3ft of swell most of the day, while the Mornington Peninsula saw clean conditions through the morning with solid sets on the beachies before winds tended more N/NW.

A SW change was delayed through Sunday morning, and so was the expected increase in swell with the change, but the Surf Coast still offered clean 4ft waves through the morning before winds tended onshore into the afternoon.

With the front being delayed, it lost a bit of its strength, and as a result the increase in size yesterday was below expectations on Friday. With the passing of the front, the swell has dropped today but conditions were fun again west of Melbourne with clean 2-3ft waves and bumpier 5ft surf to the east.

This week (Jun 30 – Jul 4)

A SW change due through the afternoon today will be attached to a stronger polar front and with this we should see medium levels of SW swell persist through tomorrow ahead of a slow drop Wednesday. Also in the mix will be some longer-range SW groundswell for the afternoon and Wednesday morning.

The Surf Coast should hang in the 3ft range while the Mornington Peninsula should see larger 5-6ft sets but average conditions with a W'ly breeze. The Surf Coast will be clean with morning W/NW winds tomorrow ahead of a shift to the W/SW during the day and then NW tending W/NW winds Wednesday.

Wave heights should continue to ease into Thursday on the Surf Coast, back to an inconsistent 2ft+, but a new long-range W/SW groundswell should keep the Mornington Peninsula topped up with 3ft to occasionally 5ft waves as winds tend more N'ly into the afternoon. This is probably the best time to surf east of Melbourne before winds start to strengthen from the N/NW again into Friday.

This weekend onwards (Jul 5 onwards)

Now, the models diverge into the end of the week regarding a vigorous mid-latitude front pushing across from WA and over towards us.

The American solution GFS has the best swell producing system regarding our region, with a healthy fetch of W/SW gales aimed towards us as the front moves through the Bight. This would generate a solid swell for later Friday and more so Saturday.

The European and Australian models have a less favourable cut-off low forming, which will limit the fetch of winds in our swell window and just bring a small increase in short-range SW swell Saturday afternoon before fading Sunday.

Unfortunately it looks like the later solutions will come to fruition with an average increase in swell due through Saturday and with onshore winds. A drop in size is then due Sunday under more favourable W/NW winds, but we'll confirm this on Wednesday.

Into the start of next week there's nothing major on the cards, but the second half of the week is looking a lot more interesting. A strong amplification of the Long Wave Trough is forecast to move in from the west and with this we should see a series of vigorous polar fronts pushing up towards us, generating at least one large pulse of groundswell later in the week.

Check back here on Wednesday for a running update on these developments though.