Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 4th Jun)

Best Days: Thursday and Friday mornings on the Surf Coast, Tuesday morning on the Mornington Peninsula

Recap

A mix of small W/SW groundswell and peaky SE windswell was seen across the region yesterday as light morning winds freshened from the W/NW during the day, favouring protected locations on the Surf Coast.

Today the swell has dropped back a touch with small clean 1-2ft waves on the Surf Coast and bumpy 3ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula, but a late increase in medium sized W/SW groundswell is due as winds tend more W/NW across both coasts. This will again favour protected locations on the Surf Coast, so keep an eye on the surfcams later in the day for indications of the new swell.

Thursday and Friday (Jun 2 - 6)

There's been no real change to the W/SW groundswell due across the coast later today ahead of a peak through tomorrow.

The mid-latitude low responsible for the swell is currently weakening to our south-west and as touched on above, the peak in size is due tomorrow morning to 3ft on the Surf Coast with 4ft sets at 13th Beach, Bells and Winki, while the Mornington Peninsula should see 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets.

The Surf Coast will be the pick of the regions with a light W/NW offshore during the morning ahead of a weak and shallow SW change.

A slow drop in size should be seen Friday from 2-3ft in general across the Surf Coast with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula as winds swing back to the NW during the morning ahead of another slightly stronger W/SW change.

This weekend and Monday (Jun 7 - 9)

As mentioned on Wednesday the weekend is looking poor. Saturday morning will be clean on the Surf Coast but only a small leftover 1-2ft of swell is expected. A strong cold front pushing through during the afternoon will bring with it a kick in medium sized SW groundswell Sunday but fresh to strong S'ly winds.

Monday isn't looking too much better with a lingering S/SE breeze continuing to create poor conditions.

Next Tuesday onwards (Jun 10 onwards)

The Mornington Peninsula will be the go on Tuesday as winds swing back offshore from the N/NE but there won't be much swell leftover above 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

The longer term outlook is finally looking up as a strengthening node of the Long Wave Trough is forecast to move in across WA mid next week.

With this we should see some stronger and more familiar winter frontal activity with a series of medium sized plus W/SW groundswells on the cards from next weekend onwards. Check back here on Friday for confirmation of this though and in the meantime enjoy some fun waves expected across the Surf Coast.