Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 2nd May)

Best Days: Selected spots east of Melbourne early tomorrow before winds go onshore, Monday morning on the Surf Coast, Tuesday afternoon in protected spots

Recap

The swell held above expectations into yesterday morning as winds improved across the Surf Coast, offering clean 3-4ft sets across the reefs and beaches before easing back through the day to a smaller 2ft to occasionally 3ft. The Mornington Peninsula offered more size but conditions were average with the NW-WNW wind.

Early today the surf started off slow, but a new mix of swells have since started to fill in, rising from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula under moderate to fresh N'ly winds.

An onshore change expected this afternoon has now been delayed, with the deepening low pressure system linked to this change expected to stall slightly west of us, resulting in winds holding from the N/NW right until dark. Combine this with a building swell to the 3ft+ range on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, and there'll be some fun waves on offer into this afternoon.

This weekend (May 3 – May 4)

There's been no change to the strong SW groundswell due tomorrow across the coast, generated earlier this week and peaking to 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds however have shifted a little with the stalling low pressure system, but for the most part they look poor.

A strong onshore change has been delayed until early tomorrow morning, and it looks to hit the Surf Coast around dawn, but the Mornington Peninsula and further east may still see light and variable winds early morning. As the day progresses though, the low will move east, bringing onshores too all coasts and these look to linger into Sunday from the S/SW. Along with the onshores will be a chunky and messy S'ly windswell, similar to the size of the groundswell on the Surf Coast.

Looking at the possibility of an early W'ly wind on the Surf Coast Sunday and unfortunately it looks slim due to the low stalling a touch further west than ideal. Keep an eye on local wind observations if you're in the area though as there's a small outside chance.

Monday onwards (May 5 onwards)

The ocean and winds will settle down temporarily through Monday as the low moves off to the east, with a dropping swell in the 3ft range expected on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula under NW winds ahead of a late SW change.

As touched on last update, an increase in large and stormy S/SW swell is due through Tuesday before easing Wednesday. This is linked to a relatively weak cold front moving in from the west intensifying into a deep low pressure system to our south-west and projecting a fetch of gale to severe-gale S/SW up into Tassie on Monday and Tuesday (pictured right).

This is expected to generate a large S/SW groundswell that should peak through Tuesday afternoon to 6-8ft on the Surf Coast and 8-10ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Unfortunately winds will be fresh to strong from the SW as the swell peaks, leaving only the most protected bays and points with clean conditions. Early morning there may be a W'ly around Torquay, but the swell will be half the size.

The front will move up the Southern NSW coast on Wednesday leaving an easing swell and fresh but easing S'ly winds across both coasts.

Longer term, there's nothing major for the rest of next week as a blocking high moves in from the west, so in summary, the coming period will see plenty of swell but generally poor winds across most of the state.