Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon 17th Mar)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong, easing south swell for Tues with improving conditions under a variable morning breeze
• Small leftovers Wed with winds around to the NE (light early)
• Light N'ly winds Thurs with a small pulse of long period S swell, easing Fri
• Small weekend with light winds
• Nothing significant beyond 

Recap

Small southerly swells maintained clean 2ft sets across south facing beaches on Saturday, easing to 1-2ft Sunday with the inclusion of some minor NE windswell as winds freshened from the north. A strong front pushed through overnight and building southerly swells have increased from 4-5ft to 6ft+ at south facing beaches though conditions are terrible under gusty southerly winds. Protected southern ends are smaller but cleaner. 

Bondi looking solid this afternoon

This  week (Mar 18 - 21)

The front responsible for today’s large southerly swell has already exited our swell window, so we’re looking at a steady drop in size from Tuesday onwards. 

Today’s gusty winds will ease back in strength and become light and variable early morning, however we’ll see NE breezes develop through the afternoon as a high pressure system sets up camp in the Tasman Sea. Early Tuesday morning will probably retain some surface lumpiness at exposed spots but expect a rapid improvement through the morning.

As for size, expect south facing beaches to ease from 3-5ft to 2-3ft through the day, with smaller surf elsewhere but a few bigger bombs across the Hunter early on.

Freshening NE winds will remain a feature throughout Wednesday - though with perhaps a window of light winds early - as the south swell bottoms out into the 1-2ft range (maybe a few bigger sets early morning). We’ll also see a small increase in local NE windswell, probably 1-2ft across most NE facing beaches in the Sydney region but up to 2-3ft along the South Coast owing to a slightly longer fetch length. Quality won’t be high though.

Thursday is then looking at lighter N’ly winds as the Tasman high eases in strength, along with a small pulse of long range S’ly swell generated by strong but poorly aligned frontal activity below the continent this week. 

Most south facing breaches should pick up inconsistent 2ft sets on Thursday, though some of the region’s more reliable south swell magnets (Newcastle) may see occasional bigger 2-3ft waves. There’ll also be some minor NE short period swell in the water too.

Easing swells on Friday and variable winds under a troughy pattern will provide small clean leftovers to finish the working week.

This weekend (Mar 22 - 23)

Looks like a small weekend of flukey south swells and light variable winds. 

The Southern Ocean storm track will be steered well away from our swell window over the coming days so the best we can hope for are glancing pulses of peripheral southerly energy, perhaps to 2ft at south facing beaches (late Saturday and early Sunday look like the best chance for this).

Otherwise, expect only small surf across most beaches this weekend. 

Next week (Mar 24 onwards)

There’s nothing significant on the charts for next week, so we’ll have to wait and see what Wednesday’s update brings.