Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 14th Mar)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Not much this weekend with small swells from the S/SE and E and light winds Sat
• Increasing NE winds Sun with some NE windswell possible PM
• Action from the S next week with a trough/front Mon bringing a S’ly change and spike in S swell
• S swell peaking Tues with S’ly winds
• Easing into Wed with good winds
• Longer period S groundswell next week- filling in Thurs with light winds, holding into Fri with tricky winds
• Smaller surf into next weekend
• Typical autumn pattern medium term with potential for both E and S swells- nothing specific yet, so check back in Mon for updates

Recap

S swells yesterday came in over f/cast expectations with some very pleasant 2-3ft surf on offer at S exposed breaks (few bigger ones on the Hunter) under light morning land breezes and weak a’noon seabreezes. Size has dipped back today with clean leftovers offering 2ft sets at S facing beaches, smaller elsewhere. 

Fun, clean S swells yesterday

This weekend (Mar 15-16)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Weak high pressure is in the Tasman with a shallow, decaying trough expected to move up the south coast today and wash out across the Central NSW Coast tomorrow with another weak high moving into the Tasman in it’s wake. 

The weak trough looks to supply a SW flow tomorrow morning, more W’ly North of the Harbour, before winds lay down and tend to weak NE seabreezes in the a’noon. Small, weak swells tomorrow with a blend of S/SE and E swells hovering in the 1-2ft range for most of the day.

Similar into Sun morning with light W-NW winds but those winds will tend NE and freshen through the day as a robust front approaches from the Southern Ocean. Small surf through the day with some workable NE windswell on offer through the latter half of the a’noon to 2 occ. 3ft.

Next week (Mar 17 onwards)

SW gales push through Bass Strait and off the Far South Coast Sun night and into Mon (see below) with the bulk of the frontal winds likely to extend up to Sydney in the hours before dawn. The trough and front now look to skip away to the east quickly during Mon but we’ll still see a significant spike in S swell from gales out of Bass Strait and the proximate fetch of gales up the South Coast. Expect fresh SW-S winds at dawn, with fresh S’ly winds starting to moderate later in the a’noon as the front pushes eastwards. New raw S swell will be in the 3-4ft range, building to 5-6ft through the day before starting to back off in the a’noon. S’ly winds will make it hard to access the full size of the swell so keep expectations in check.

Winds will be on the improve by Tues as high pressure moves across NSW. We’ll still likely see a S’ly component in the wind flow through the morning (W/SW-SW) tending to light S’ly then clocking around E’ly to NE’ly in the a’noon. Swells will have eased back from Mon with leftover 4-5ft surf in the morning, dropping further during the day. Traces of long period S swell will be in the mix as well showing more in the a’noon at S facing beaches.

Small leftovers on Wed with clean 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches, tiny elsewhere.

A long period S’ly groundswell is still due Thurs/Fri. Latest model runs have weakened the fetch as it approaches the Tasman, confining it to a smaller area but it’s still operating on a very active sea state so it’s possible it could still over-perform. Under current modelling we’re on track for 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches Thurs a’noon, easing to 3ft on Fri. We’ll see how it looks on Mon. Winds look OK for S facing beaches with a light N-NE flow both days.

Swells look to ease back to small E’ly angled ones into next weekend.

Further ahead and there’s more signs of life later next week with GFS suggesting an enhanced trade flow with an E’ly dip or elongated low in the Coral Sea. More frontal activity below the continent suggests S swells medium term although there’s nothing suggesting large swells at present.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon, until then, have a great weekend!