Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 29 Jan)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More small S swell Thurs
• Small short range SE swell Thurs hanging in at low levels Fri
• Nothing much this weekend- small, weak SE windswells with light winds
• Small wind swells into early next week tending to NE windswell Tues/Wed
• Small S/SE swell possible mid next week as trough pushes through
• Tropics fires up next week but still uncertain surf potential, small E/NE swells likely as a minimum later next week
• Juicier E-E/NE swells potentially on the cards by next weekend- low confidence in specifics, check back Fri

Recap

Easing S swells yesterday with a few 2-3ft sets across magnets and the Hunter with NE windswell becoming the dominant swell train through the day to similar sizes. Winds were light early, tending hot N’ly before a gusty S’ly change mid-afternoon cooled things down and blew out most beaches. A bumpy, low quality S swell is in the water today, offering up 3ft waves (bigger on the Hunter) at S exposed breaks under S’ly winds which are expected to moderate and tend SE in the a’noon.

Minor NE windswells yesterday offered surfable options

This week (Jan 27-31)

The trough which brought a S’ly change to temperate NSW has now stalled on the MNC with a weak trough line in the Tasman and some paltry SE winds below the trough line aimed up at Central NSW. Along with a last pulse of S swell we’ll see minor SE swell pad out the week. The tropics is in an active state with multiple low centres expected along the monsoon trough as it responds to a phase of the MJO passing into Australian longitudes. Still plenty of uncertainty there, with any meaningful swell a while away. We’ll see E’ly tradeswells fill in across the sub-tropics over the weekend and early next week, with minor E/NE swells filtering down to temperate regions. More significant E’ly swells are still on the table but contingent on low pressure developments next week. Read on for details. 

In the short run we’ll see a small blend of longer period S and short period S/SE swells to 2-3ft across S exposed breaks tomorrow with mediocre conditions as a SE flow holds at light/mod paces. 

Pretty similar for Fri, although we’ll see that longer period S swell fade out leaving a small, weak signal of SE swell around 2ft. Winds look too be marginally lighter although remaining S/SE-SE so keep expectations pegged low for quality. There should be enough for a grovel. 

This weekend (Feb1-2)

We should see marginally more energy than suggested in Mon’s notes as a new high moves into the Tasman and the lingering trough holds a SE fetch of breezes aimed at Central NSW.

Nothing major but Sat looks to continue SE swells in the 2ft range with light land breezes early, tending to light SE-E breezes.

Just a fraction smaller on Sun under a similar pattern with early light winds tending to light a’noon seabreezes. Both days should be fun for kids and learners with a grovel on offer for high volume boards. 

Next week (Feb3 onwards)

A small start is expected for next week as high pressure sits in the Tasman, with a broad SE’ly wind field established in the Coral Sea and one, two or three low pressure systems stretched out along the monsoon trough line from the Coral Sea into the South Pacific.

Initially not much at all for temperate NSW with minor E’ly swells in the 2ft range or less for Mon, tending to small E/NE-NE swells Tues as winds shift more NE.

Further ahead we may see a trough and front bring a S-S/SE change Wed along with another minor round of swell from the same direction. 

Following that we’ll be hoping one of the tropical low pressure centres starts to slide southwards into the Tasman Sea. Models are still all over the place regarding this prospect although the latest EC run is suggesting such a scenario which may see better quality E/NE-E swells possibly next weekend or early week 10/2. Expect revisions.

At a minimum temperate NSW should see some small E/NE swell filtering down from the tradewind band into next weekend. 

Keep tabs on the f/cast notes and comments below the line- we’ll be seeing lots of model fluctuations as this highly dynamic monsoon phase evolves over the next week.

Seeya Fri.