Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell Sat AM with offshore winds
• Sizey S swell increase Sun, extending into Mon
• S’ly winds increasing Sun extending into Mon
• Now tracking a good quality E swell for early next week as tropical depression drifts southwards from Fiji later this week-  fills in Tues, peaks Wed with good winds, tails off Thurs
• Possible large S swell event beginning next Fri as another low forms in Tasman, suggesting an extended period of sizey S to SE swells- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

A nice kick in SE swell for Thurs saw quality 4ft surf yesterday under light morning land breezes which tended N/NE in the a’noon. Size has settled down to some 2-3ft leftovers this morning with a N’ly bump on it from overnight winds. N’ly winds are expected to freshen during the day as a front and low approach from the W.

Nice conditions for the dawny yesterday with offshores and quality SE swells

This weekend (Oct 19-20)

No great change to the weekend forecast. A low is expected to move E of Tasmania o/night and form a broad low pressure trough in the Tasman driving W’ly then S’ly winds along the NSW coast before moving NE as a surface low over the weekend. That will be the second surface low in succession to form in the Tasman and we may yet see a third develop later next week. 

Early offshores tomorrow morning offer a window of groomed conditions although winds may be gusty and uncomfortable at certain locations. Not much surf to groom anyhow- a few small leftover NE windswell trains in the 2ft range early, quickly becoming tiny/flat before a late kick in new short range S swell to 3ft across S exposed breaks. Keep expectations low as winds shift mod S then S/SE by close of play.

Winds increase Sun as the low pressure trough moves NE so expect a fresh/strong S’ly flow most of the day with just a brief period of more S/SW possible north of the Harbour. Size will be up though with with mostly short range S swell trains in the 3-5ft range building to 4-6ft through the day. Again, S’ly winds will force surfing into more sheltered locations where size will be considerably smaller. 

Next week (Oct 21 onwards)

We’ll see low pressure located near Lord Howe Island by Mon with a continuing stiff S’ly flow along most of the eastern seaboard and plenty of size from the S-S/SE. Expect fresh S’lies and size in the 6ft+ range (bigger across open bommies) tending more S/SE in the a’noon.

Winds should moderate into Tues as the low dissipates and pressure gradients ease. Early land breezes from the W-SW will clock around light SE-E during the day providing much more workable surface conditions. We’ll see easing S/SE swells and slow building trend from the E/NE as swells fill in from a tropical depression drifting south from Fiji.

It should be a slow build as initial pulses from the tradewind band make landfall with sets building to 2-3ft by close of play.

Stronger, longer period swells show on Wed with 4ft sets through the day. It will be coming from a fair way away so expect pulses and slow periods. Light morning land breezes should offer primo conditions before winds tend to N-NE seabreezes. All in all, Wed looks good.

We’ll see E/NE swells extend into Thurs with a very slow ramping down in size and consistency through the day. Still plenty of quality on offer with light SW winds before a trough brings a weak S-SE change. Expect revisions to that wind f/cast.

Further ahead and another dynamic outlook is ahead. Major models are in agreement that another front/trough system forms a surface low in the Tasman late next week, possibly an order of magnitude greater than the current iterations (see below). Under current modelling we’d expect stiff SW-S winds to develop Fri with a very sizey S swell developing into the weekend, up into the 8-10ft range. We may see a second phase of the swell as low pressure stalls or retrogrades from near the South Island, suggesting a reinforcing pulse of SE swell early week of 28/10. Too early to have any confidence in specifics of size or timing there. 

Certainly something to get excited about though, especially as we move into the second half of October.

Check back Mon and we’ll see how it’s shaping up and until then, have a great weekend!