Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Nice little kick in SE swell later Wed into Thurs with light winds
• Easing swells Fri with some NE windswell in the a’noon
• Small NE windswell Sat AM with offshore winds
• Sizey S swell increase Sun, extending into Mon
• S’ly winds increasing Sun extending into Mon
• Now tracking a good quality E swell for early next week as tropical depression drifts southwards from Fiji later this week- should fill in Tues, peak Wed with good winds, tail off Thurs

Recap

Windy, poor quality S swells yesterday in the 3ft range, bigger 4ft on the Hunter. Conditions have improved this morning with light land breezes and clean surf to 3ft+- a mix of shorter range SE and longer period S swells. Those winds will tend N/NE through the a’noon and freshen.

Nice energy from the S and SE this morning with improved conditions 

This week (Oct 16-18)

We still have low pressure roughly due east of the NSW/Victorian border buttressed by high pressure near New Zealand. It’s not a very strong system but we did see a little flare up on the southern flank o/night into this morning before the system began to dissipate, although it is expected to linger in the central Tasman. We’ll see a low skirting the Bight approach from the west result in freshening N’lies over the short term before entering the Tasman on the weekend, bringing another round of south winds and swell. In the tropics a trough deepening between Vanuatu and Fiji forms a broad surface low which tracks southwards through the wide open South Pacific slot between the North Island and tropical island chains, generating some tasty E’ly swell next week.

In the short run, we’ll see a little kick in SE swell from the Tasman Low, into the 3 occ. 4ft range tomorrow. Early winds look to be light and from the W-NW before clocking around N then NE and freshening.

Small leftovers from the S/SE-SE on Fri with a few 2ft sets, easing back to tiny through the day. N’ly winds really freshen on Fri as the low approaches Tasmania and we should see some workable NE windswell by close of play from the proximate fetch which builds along the NSW coastline. Nothing huge but a few 2 footers.

This weekend (Oct 19-20)

The low drives a W’ly flow across the region through Sat morning, eventually tending S’ly then SE’ly as a high pressure ridge fills in behind the change. Sat morning should see some workable leftover NE windswell to 2ft with clean conditions before wave heights take nosedive for the a’noon.

Sun looks a different story. The low looks to absorb the remnants of the current low and build quite an impressive fetch of S’ly quarter winds extending form Tasmania up towards the sub-tropics. That will see quite a step-up in size through Sun and into Mon, but winds won’t be as kind, being mod/fresh from the S. Expect size to build from 3-4ft to 3-5ft on Sun, smaller surf obviously at more sheltered locations.

Next week (Oct 21 onwards)

Our reconstituted low moves NE into the Tasman early next week, with high pressure sliding under it. This will maintain a S’ly flow through Mon and into Tues before pressure gradients ease.

Sizey S swells into Mon under current modelling with size to 4-5ft , easing and tending more S/SE-SE on Tues. 

At this stage S’ly winds will confine surfing to more protected locations Mon, with easing winds possibly opening up a few more locations on Tues. 

While this is happening we’ll be expecting the arrival of good quality E swell from the passage of the tropical low through the South Pacific slot (see below)

Under current modelling we should see this swell start to fill in Tues with 3-4ft sets by close of play.

Wed looks to be the peak of this swell event with 4-5ft sets and light winds. Morning offshores tending to light seabreezes. 

E’ly swells then tail off through Thurs with a few small leftovers possible Fri. 

Further ahead we may see the approach of another low from the W, suggesting another swell from the S, possibly as early as next weekend.

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Seeya then.