Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed Oct 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building S/SE swells Thurs/Fri with good AM winds
• Large kick in SE swell Sat with good winds
• Easing size Sun with good winds
• Sizeable S'ly swell building Tues, peaking Wed
• Another strong S swell due later next week

Recap

Light morning offshore winds and weak afternoon sea breezes accompanied 3ft of leftover E’ly swell on Tuesday that eased to 2ft through the day. Smaller 1-2ft surf this morning has built from the south (up to 3-4ft now, a little higher than expected) though wave quality is low under moderate to fresh S/SE winds. Beaches not open to the south are much smaller.

This week (Oct 3 - 4)

No major changes to the outlook for the rest of the week.

The models are not properly resolving the evolving system in the Tasman Sea, which is not entirely surprising; this is a common occurrence for off-axis systems positioned closer to New Zealand than the Australian mainland.

Surf size should build to 2-3ft from the S/SE on Thursday, with a few bigger waves into the afternoon. Friday morning should provide 3-4ft waves from the same direction, building to 4-5ft into the afternoon as the swell direction starts to trend a little more to the SE. Of course, anywhere not directly exposed to the south will be much smaller.

With favourable winds both mornings, ahead of a light nor’easter Thursday afternoon, becoming moderate to fresh Friday afternoon, there’ll be some really good waves on offer at beaches open to the south. Just get in early for the best options.

This weekend (Oct 5 - 6)

The models have marginally downgraded the developing Tasman Low generating Saturday’s large SE swell, but a little more more crucially, have swung its primary alignment more meridional (north/south) which is slightly off-axis compared to earlier runs. This has resulted in a slight adjustment to the weekend's size estimate since Monday's notes were issued. 

That being said, I still really like the way this system is developing and even better, local winds look great right across Southern NSW all weekend. So we can still expect excellent waves both days.

The minor downgrade of this low also means that the peak of the swell has been pushed back a few hours - we’ll still see strong energy push through overnight Friday though the chances of a late large pulse are reduced, and we’ll probably see surf size reaching a maximum through mid-late morning Saturday. 

Swell direction will be out of the SE and beaches with good southerly exposure should manage 5-6ft sets (bigger at offshore bombies with occasional 6-8ft sets). Expect much smaller surf at remaining beaches. 

Sunday will ease from somewhere between 3-5ft early on, to 2-3ft into the afternoon (smaller away from the regional swell magnets), so you’ll have to surf early for the best options. 

Conditions look clean in general with morning offshore winds tending variable into the afternoon, perhaps weak sea breezes popping up here and there but no major strength is expected.

Next week (Oct 7 onwards)

Smaller waves are expected Monday, but we’ve got a strong new south swell due to build Tuesday, peaking Wednesday, sourced from a deep cut-off low entering the Tasman Sea from the Southern Ocean. This is likely to push wave heights back up into the 6ft range, and early indications are that local winds could be favourable.

Another strong frontal system is expected to trail behind which should set up another sizeable south swell for the end of the week, but I’ll have more on that in Friday’s update.