Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Sep 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Windy and sizey from the S-S/SE on Fri
• E’ly winds Sat (light and variable south of Jervis Bay) with modest E’ly swells
• Better quality E-E/NE swells Sun with morning light winds and a’noon E-NE breezes
• Good quality E/NE swells persist into Mon with morning light winds and a S’ly change
• Increase in new short range S swell Mon, persisting into Tues (low point in swell cycle)
• More S swell pulses Wed, into Thurs with SW-S winds
• Better quality S/SE swells Fri, holding into Sat with light winds expected
• Easing swells Sun
• More S swell possible into week 7/10- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

S’lies winds reached strong wind to low end gales yesterday as a trough and front pushed aggressively northwards, whipping up low quality windswell to 6ft or so at exposed locations. Still windy and blown out today as winds shift more S-S/SE with a ragged 5-6ft of surf around and not many (if any) quality options around.

Sizey but very ratty this morning in the onshore flow

This weekend (Sep28-29)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast. Strong high pressure (1030hpa) moving off the Southern NSW Coast with a trough and embedded coastal low currently forming off the Far North Coast and expected to deepen into tomorrow before dissipating Sun and lingering in the Tasman early next week as a trough. 

The E’ly flow looks to be established through tomorrow across the region apart from areas south of Jervis Bay where a weaker, troughy region should see a more variable flow (offshore morning, light seabreezes). For the rest of the region we’re looking at a moderate E/SE’ly- E’ly flow for the day, lighter in the morning but not likely to be offshore apart from a brief period on the Northern Beaches early. We should see swells start to show from the fetch of winds around the southern flank of the low, extending into the Northern Tasman out to Lord Howe and further E to Norfolk Island. Smaller 2-3ft to start, building to 4ft during the day.

The fetch weakens into Sun but moves further south and aims up better for temperate NSW, so we should see some extra size, in the 3-5ft range from the E-E/NE. Light morning winds from the NE-E/NE (possibly briefly NW early, more likely from the Illawarra southwards) tending light NE during the day. Swell direction will compensate somewhat for a nagging onshore flow but there should be plenty of fun waves around, albeit not perfect.

Next week (Sep30 onwards)

Another front/trough system enters the lower Tasman Mon, bringing a return S’ly flow. There should be a brief window of light morning offshore breezes before a robust S’ly change Mon morning. Sheltered spots will benefit from 3-4ft of E swell, while we’ll see the front and proximate S’ly fetch whip up 3ft of short range S swell by close of play.

The situation becomes dynamic again next week. The trough is expected to stall in the central Tasman with a new strong front pushing NE into the Tasman and becoming incorporated into the trough system (see below). The system then looks to stall and intensify near the South Island, possibly even retrograding mid next week.

The up shot of that is a series of S, then S/SE swells next week. They won’t be of the magnitude of the June Solstice swells which came from a similar set-up but we will still see plenty of size.

Tues looks the low point with small S swells to 2-3ft on offer and light morning winds tending light/mod S-SE during the day.

By Wed we should see a stronger S swell pulse from the frontal intrusion, up into the 4-6ft range at S facing beaches, smaller into more sheltered areas under S’ly winds.

That pulse looks to ease Thurs with a light/mod S’ly flow on offer.

Stronger S/SE pulses then fill in Fri/Sat from the reintensified low system. Too early to have confidence in size and specifics but current modelling suggests 4-6ft surf with light winds, tending more N’ly into Sat.

Worth pencilling in now and checking back in Mon.

Longer term and we’ll see those swells ease through Sun with another frontal system early week beginning 7/10.

Active period ahead so stay tuned for Monday’s updates and until then, have a great weekend!