Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Rebuild in mix of S swells Tues with plenty of size and offshore winds tending SW then NW during the day
• Easing but still fun S swell Wed with offshore winds
• Small long period S swells into Thurs with offshore winds tending W/SW-SW in the a’noon
• Small clean surf Fri 
• More offshore winds this weekend with small S swells, up a notch on Sun
• Mostly small surf next week under a blocking pattern, small S swell then some NE windswell mid week

Recap

A small blend of S swells to 2-3ft Sat with clean conditions early before NE breezes and a S’ly change. Sunday was a different story with strong and gusty S’lies developing as a front and trough pushed through. Surf built from 3-4ft up to the 5-6ft range at S exposed breaks, much smaller at protected spots. This morning is seeing sizey S swells to 5-6ft, still a bit raw and ragged at S facing beaches under a SW flow, with smaller, cleaner surf at more sheltered locations.

Raw and ragged S swells building Sun

This week (Sep 16-20)

After a spell of early spring heat the synoptic pattern has reversed back to a more winter style situation with frontal activity pushing into the Tasman , backed by a strong high (1040hPa) in the Bight. We’ll see this high rapidly weaken and move up over NSW and into the Tasman this week while zonal fronts continue westerly ridging below Tasmania and bring mostly offshore winds to temperate NSW. More frontal activity is expected later this week continuing the pattern of episodic S swells with generally favourable  winds. Let’s dig into the details.

In the short run the current frontal push into the Tasman generates a reinforcing pulse of mid period S swell through tomorrow. We should see surf rebuild into the 5-6ft range with some bigger sets on the Hunter and exposed S facing reefs. Compared to the last swell, winds are looking pretty good as a weak, troughy areas comes over the region in advance of the high pressure cell. Early offshore breezes should have a S’ly component (W/SW-SW) before shifting more NW with some patches of NE seabreeze likely in the a’noon. That should see S facing beaches and reefs able to utilise the full size of the swell.

Easing then into Wed with some quality 3-4ft leftovers backed up by some longer period swell trains. Conditions should be primo under a light W’ly tending W/NW’ly flow, tending more NW in the a’noon as a front approaches with a late, light seabreeze a possibility.

That front pushes through Thurs so we’ll see early NW winds tend more W’ly then W/SW’ly in the a’noon. Small, but clean longer period S swell trains look to offer some 2 occ. 3ft sets across S facing beaches. 

Another small clean day to end the working week with some traces of long period S swell offering ups the occ 2ft set. Offshore W’ly winds look to blow most of the day, possibly tending more NW in the a’noon with some patches of NE seabreeze likely around the last couple of hrs of the day.

This weekend (Sep21-22)

Offshore winds continue into Sat as zonal fronts bring a high riding W’ly flow across temperate NSW and a troughy pattern lingers in the Northern Tasman. We may see W’ly winds tend more SW in the a’noon depending on how the pattern plays out. Not much surf on offer but we should continue to see more small S swell energy from a very active storm pattern below the continent. Not much size for Sat, in the 2ft range.

We may see a little more long period and mid period energy Sun from a front Fri/Sat with some 3ft sets and offshore winds tending SW then S-S/SE as a small troughy feature moves up the coast. We’ll finesse those winds as we move through the week.

Next week (Sep23 onwards)

Nothing major to start next week. Looks like we will see fronts approaching the Tasman but steered southwards by a mild blocking pattern. That would suggest small/tiny surf for the first half of next week- with just some minor S swell trains keeping S facing beaches surfable. By mid next week we may see freshening N-NE flow off the NSEW coast generate some NE windswell. We’ll see how that looks on Wed.

Seeya then.