Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor background E swells hold a faint signal into the weekend
• Small for the rest of the week (Thurs/Fri)
• Not much for the weekend, small background E swells with light winds- best winds Sun
• Small S swell Tues next week
• Not much behind it- small S swell possible later next week
• More small surf in the medium term- nothing much on the radar

Recap

S swell kicked in yesterday with sets building to 4-5ft at S facing beaches under morning W-SW winds which tended S-S/SE in the a’noon. Size has levelled off into this morning with some occ. 4ft+ sets on offer, clean at S exposed breaks under a morning W-NW flow which will tend mod/fresh N’ly as the day goes on. A fairly steep easing trend is expected through the day.

Still some clean sets with size on offer this morning

This week (Sep4-6)

The front responsible for the current S swell has skipped across the Tasman and we have a strong high (1030hPa) currently drifting NE off NSW into the Tasman Sea at typical spring latitudes. Once that high moves offshore we’ll see N’lies kick in for the rest of the week with only a weak trough expected to interrupt that pattern. No major swells on the radar through the short or medium term.

In the short run and it’s a meagre outlook for the rest of the week. We’ll see morning winds from the NW both Thurs and Fri, tending N/NW-N at mod/fresh paces in the a’noon. 

Small leftover S swell trains should offer up an occ. 2 footer tomorrow (occ. 3ft set at the best S swell magnets) morning before easing right off during the day.

Nothing much at all on Fri apart from a very stray set to 1-2ft from the E coming out of the South Pacific. Just a grovel for the patient.

This weekend (Sep7-8)

We should see a troughy wind change through the morning on Sat with W-W/NW winds before the change and SW tending S-SE winds after it. Looks like the change will be on the Illawarra before dawn and into Sydney early morning. We may see some minor NE windswell in the water early cleaned up by offshore winds but no real size expected (1-2ft tops). Absent that, nothing much happening. Tiny background E swells may offer up a rideable wave at open beaches.

Once that SE wind kicks in it’ll be messy and blown out at most spots.
Winds should be light for Sun morning with tiny clean surf in the 1 occ. 2ft range. Light land breezes will tend light E/NE-NE in the a’noon as the trough moves offshore. Sun looks marginally the better day due to light winds. Probably a fun day for learners to get out the back.

Next week (Sep9 onwards)

A front moves into the Tasman o/night Sun into Mon, with a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman expected to linger. Under current modelling the front and parent low look zonal, disjointed and very fast moving and the fetch out of Bass Strait is weaker than previous fetched. That spells a minor increase from the S through Tues- up into the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches.

Not much for Mon- more tiny surf in the 1 occ.2ft range with offshore winds tending variable in the a’noon.

Another frontal system we mentioned on Mon now looks to develop further east and skip away quickly out of our swell window. We’ll have another look on Fri but at this stage it’s looking like not much of a swell producer- possibly sending some small S swell our way late next week.

Dual celled blocking high pressure looks to move into the Tasman later next week, suggesting more small surf although EC does offer up a small trough of low pressure in the Tasman late next week which may be a source of small SE swells.

We’ll see how all of this looks on Fri.

Seeya then.