Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor background E swells hold a faint signal through this week
• Stronger S swell Tues, holding into Wed morning before easing
• Strong ŚW tending S winds Tues tending offshore Wed AM then mod/fresh N’ly
• Small for the rest of the week (Thurs/Fri)
• Not much for the weekend, small background E swells with light winds 
• Small S swells possible Mon/Tues next week
• Possible better qualityS swell late next week - low confidence, so check back in Wed

Recap

Not much over the weekend with small, just rideable swells (mix of S and NE windswells) offering up a grovel on the open beaches. Sat was in the 1-2ft range (more 1-1.5ft) with mod/fresh NW tending W’ly winds. Similar on Sun with the occ. set from the E offering a 2 footer for the patient. Not much different today with inconsistent 1-2ft surf and mod NW winds already shifting W/SW as a strong front pushes into the Tasman. We should see a modest kick in new S swell later in the a’noon.

A few fun shories over the weekend

This week (Sep2-6)

After strong winds and unseasonal heat build ups we’ll see a more typical seasonal pattern for the short term with a  high in the bight and a strong front pushing into the Tasman as a parent low slips under Tasmania. The front brings a bog standard blast of winter/spring style S swell through the short term, with the high quickly moving into the Tasman. Once that occurs we’ll see swells ramp down quickly with a return to small swells and a northerly pattern through the end of the week and into the weekend.

In the short run tomorrow should be sizey from the S and windy as the front and a high pressure ridge bring mod/fresh SW winds which will clock around S/SE in the a’noon at mod paces- although we should see winds lay down a notch close to dark. A mix of S’ly swell trains in the water will see size to 5-6ft at S facing beaches, all wind affected with smaller surf at more protected locations. There should be enough swell for some fun waves at spots with some wind protection.

Wed looks good for the early. Swell from the deeper fetch adjacent to Tasmania should be dominant for the early with size to 4-5ft at S exposed breaks (some bigger sets possible at deepwater reefs). High pressure moves quickly over NSW and slides into the Tasman Wed so we should see morning  offshore breezes early, tend variable and then freshen from the N through the a’noon, kicking right up by close of play. Expect an easing trend through the a’noon.

S swells then ease rapidly into Thurs giving us some small surf through Thurs and Fri. Light NW winds early tend N’ly both days in the ‘noon. Absent much in the way of S swell we’ll be looking at tiny surf in the 1 to occ. 2ft range out of the E. 

This weekend (Sep7-8)

No major swells expected for the weekend. A zonal front and compact low races across the Tasman over the weekend and doesn’t look like a swell producer for the f/cast region. 

A weak trough looks to stall somewhere on the Southern/Central NSW Coast bringing a weak S-SE change on Sat.

Winds look to tend light/variable Sun morning before clocking around N-NE in the a’noon.

Unless we some some drastic change in the charts through the week we’re looking at more minor surf under 2ft, mostly inconsistent background E’ly energy from the South Pacific. 

We’ll update through the week but at this stage there’s nothing worth working around, just a tiny grovel on offer for the morning.

Next week (Sep9 onwards)

Nothing really noteworthy on the charts for the first half of next week. A zonal pattern of frontal activity maintains a W’ly flow through our near Southern swell window (nothing as radical as this past week!) with high pressure moving NE into sub-tropical latitudes. We should see a minor front push into the Tasman late Sun into Mon.

That would indicate small S swells possible on Mon/Tues under flukey winds as a trough looks to move through the f/cast region during this time. Models are divergent but we’ll peg it for 2-3ft at this stage.

Following that there is some indication of a deeper fetch in the lower Tasman that may send some quality S groundswell our way late next week. Too early to have any confidence on size of timing but we’ll flag it now and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.