Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 30th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor background E swells hold a faint signal over the weekend into early next week
• Minor S swell from Bass Strait fetch Sun 
• Stronger S swell fills in Mon, peaking Tues next week with good winds
• Rapidly easing S swell Wed
• Small for the rest of next week
• More S swell expected next weekend, possibly sizey, check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Yesterdays S swell pulse filled in nicely with strong 4 occ. 5ft sets at S magnets from late morning (a few 6ft sets reported from the Hunter), grading smaller from the southern parts of Sydney southwards. Conditions were favourable with as W’ly flow that tended to light W-NW breezes with some patches of weak sea breeze in the mix. Today is seeing more offshore W tending NW winds, expected to freshen as the next front comes steaming in across Bass Strait. Size has eased back to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks, still offering a fun waves under sunny skies. We should see that swell ease off through the day.

Sizey on the Hunter yesterday

This weekend (Aug 31-Sep1)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Gales out of Bass Strait are less well aligned for swell propagation up the East Coast so looks like a pretty quiet weekend swell wise. 

Mod/fresh W’lies tomorrow, will tend NW through the a’noon. You’ll be scratching for a wave tomorrow with just minor, background swells on offer- tiny little S swells and a bit of stray E swell every so often. Expect surf in the 1ft range with the very occ. 2ft set at the best swell magnets.

Any increase in S swell now for Sun looks modest- but we should see a small boost in size to 2ft at S facing beaches with the occ. 3ft set possible across the Hunter and other direct S facing coastlines north of Sydney. Tiny surf away from those locations. Similar winds to Sat with a morning W-W/NW flow tending NW at mod paces.

Next week (Sep2 onwards)

We’ll see a deep parent low finally moving below Tasmania early next week after generating multiple large swells for Victoria. As the low moves eastwards we should see a final frontal passage through Bass Strait and with a fetch SE of Tasmania, generating a sizey S swell for early next week (see below).

Mon should start small with with a pre-frontal NW wind, tending W/SW then SW with the passage of the front. An a’noon kick in size looks to be relatively modest but should see surf build to 2-3ft across S facing, wind affected by SW winds.

Tues looks a better bet as strong S swell from the deeper fetch fills in and winds quickly lay down as high pressure drifts across NSW. We should see a strong S swell to 4-6ft across S exposed breaks, bigger sets on the Hunter and a morning offshore breeze which will lay down and tend to light E/NE-NE seabreezes in the a’noon.

By late Tues an easing trend will be in play and that will accelerate through Wed with some 3ft leftovers in the morning, dropping back quickly through the day to 2ft or so. We’ll see morning offshore breezes Wed tending to mod/fresh NE winds in the a’noon.

Not much for the rest of the week. High pressure at sub-tropical latitudes and an approaching inland trough will see winds tilt more NW through Thurs, possibly tending more W-SW Fri or into the weekend with a weak front.

That should generate some small S swell for Fri or Sat. There is some indication of a stronger frontal passage early or later next weekend suggesting a stronger S swell pulse but model agreement is poor leading to low confidence on size and timing. 

We’ll keep eyes on it and report back Mon with the latest updates.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!