Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed August 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing leftover S/SE swells Thurs with W’ly tending light/variable winds
• Tiny leftovers Fri
• Possible small NE windswell later Sat into Sun
• Not much on the radar for next week- a few flukey swell sources to watch, check back Fri for latest revisions

Recap

Strong swell from the S/SE filled in yesterday with sets to 4-5ft across S exposed breaks and the occ. bigger set at S facing reefs under early light winds which tended mod/fresh N’ly in the a’noon. On the ease today with sets to 4 occ. 5ft for the early now becoming more 3ft. NW winds are expected to tend W’ly through the day.

Sets showing yesterday afternoon

This week (Aug 21-23)

Very spring-like synoptic chart with mobile high pressure moving NE through the Tasman and a N’ly flow across most of the eastern seaboard. A strong zonal pattern with embedded fronts and troughs is under the continent and moving eastwards. That pattern is briefly interrupted by a  trough and front today before resetting again over the weekend. No major swell sources on the radar so we’ll see if we can find anything flukey to work with.

In the short run todays W’ly flow looks to continue into tomorrow before it runs out of steam and washes out to a light/variable flow. There should be some workable leftovers from the S/SE with inconsistent 2-3ft surf in the morning, fading out to 2ft or less in the a’noon.

That signal should bottom out Fri with a very occ. 2footer at the best swell magnets and tiny surf elsewhere. Light winds continue with a morning offshore breeze tending variable before a light N-NE breeze springs up in the a’noon as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman.

Nothing much to recommend Fri except a small grovel at swell magnets.

This weekend (Aug 24-25)

The lack of action continues over the weekend. A weak front passing into the Tasman Thurs/Fri now looks weaker and more zonal (W-E) than it did on Mon so we can discount it as a swell source. 

N’ly winds will increase Sat, after starting off light NW they’ll tend N-N/NE and freshen through the day. Not much surf to speak of- just some minor N/NE windswell is possible, fractionally bigger in the a’noon but highly unlikely to reach 2ft.

Similar surf for Sun with just slightly more NE windswell in the water (1-2ft) and winds shifting NW as a trough approaches. That could see a few small, dribbly waves worth a slide if you are keen. 

Next week (Aug 26 onwards)

Small, weak surf looks to extend though most of next week. Absent any swell sources, and with the zonal flow extending through our near southern swell window we’re looking at NW-W winds and tiny surf with minor S swells to 1-2ft at best at S swell magnets for at least Mon-Tues next week. 

Slim chance we may see a slight increase Wed from W’ly winds out if Bass Strait.

Those winds freshen again and we may see more of the same but bigger Thurs if things pan out.

A distant tradewind fetch feeding into a trough in Fijian longitudes should supply some small background E’ly energy later next week.

We’ll see how all these flukey sources look on Fri and hopefully have better news to impart.

Seeya then.