Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri August 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Increasing W’ly winds Sat, mostly tiny with just a small chance of a wave early
• Building S’ly swells for Sun with W/SW tending fresh SW-S winds
• Sizey but easing S swells Mon
• Quality S-S/SE groundswell now showing later Tuess and extending into Wed
• Fresh N’ly winds Tues, winds tending NW then W’ly on Wed
• Easing swells later next week
• Possible small S swell next weekend
• Possible small NE windswell Sun or early next week

Recap

Fun surf from the E/NE has persisted as a tropical looking system plays out in the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman. Surf was in the 3ft+ range yesterday with clean morning conditions before a weak S’ly change. Down a notch this morning but still the occ. 3ft wave with nice clean conditions under light land breezes which are expected to tend variable and end up light NE. Surf is now easing off into the 2-3ft range.

Powering down but still the odd clean peak on offer

This weekend (Aug 17-18)

Only minor changes to the weekend f/cast. A new trough of low pressure moves east of Tasmania and reinforces an existing trough, initially driving a W’ly flow across NSW, strongest in central and southern regions. We’ll see tiny leftovers from the E/NE-NE Sat morning- probably just enough for a grovel or a slide on a log before surf goes tiny/flat in the a’noon under the influence of freshening W’lies. Early NW winds should be a bit more manageable so if you are keen for a wave get up early and bring a big board. 

Sunday will be a different story. A cold front sweeps up along the edge of the complex low system and brings freshening SW winds through the day. These winds should start off W’ly and once they clock around SW, end up fresh SW-S. Proximate winds will generate a pretty bog standard winter-style spike in short range S swell. Expect some S’ly energy to 3-4ft in the morning building to 4-5ft in the a’noon (bigger 5-6ft on the Hunter). With fresh S’ly component winds you’ll need to see some wind protection and expect smaller surf.

Next week (Aug 19 onwards)

We’re still looking at S’ly to S/SE’ly swells next week but the overall evolution of the storms is now not as favourable with more of the energy aimed at Pacific targets. High pressure moving SE of Tasmania on Mon will hold a weakening ridge up the Central NSW Coast so we’ll see S’ly winds- likely SW for a period early morning, before winds ease and wash out to light SE-NE breezes in the a’noon. Mod S swells to 4-5ft at S facing beaches will ease off during the day, but hold in the 4ft range. 

Winds shift N’ly o/night as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman in a more typical seasonal position. We should see early NW breezes tend N then N/NE and freshen. Very spring-like winds with an initial easing in S swell. Leftover sets to 3ft at S facing beaches should provide some fun waves. From mid a’noon we should see better quality S-S/SE groundswell fill in from the deeper fetch in New Zealand longitudes. It looks a notch smaller than expected on Wed but we should still see some quality 4 occ. 5ft sets at S exposed breaks.

That pulse looks to hold into Wed with quality 4-5ft (occ. 6ft sets) surf, easing through the day. Winds should tend more favourable Wed as an approaching front/trough sees N’lies tend NW then W’ly through the day. That marks out Wed as the standout of the f/cast period.

Easing swells for the rest of next week. 

A frontal system passing through Bass Strait and into the Tasman next week may offer a small spike in S swell. At the moment it doesn’t look significant, likely producing a brief pulse of S swell in the 2-3ft range Sat, easing Sun. 

A deeper low travelling behind it may supply some better quality S swell.

High pressure sliding NE into the Tasman may supply some small NE windswell late next weekend or early next week. 

Too far off to have confidence in specifics but we’ll see how they look when we come back on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!