Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed August 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Summer style E/NE swells extend into Thurs with light SW tending S’ly winds
• Easing E/NE-NE swells for Fri with light winds
• Increasing W’ly winds Sat, mostly tiny with just a small chance of a late kick in new S swell (Sun more likely)
• Building S/SE-SE swells for Sun with W/SW tending SW-S winds
• Sizey S/SE-SE swells for Mon
• Quality S groundswell likely for Tues with plenty of size and NW tending N winds
• Still sizey but easing Wed with winds tending more NW-W/NW
• Small reinforcing pulse from the S/SE likely Thurs, easing Fri
• Easing swells expected into next weekend

Recap

We saw swells build from the E/NE yesterday from 2ft or so into the 3 occ. 4ft range with OK quality under a NE flow. Similar this morning. Nothing special as far as wave quality goes but a few fun waves from the E/NE in the 3 occ. 4ft range. Conditions were semi-clean under light morning winds expected to freshen from the N during the day before tending N/NW-NW late as a trough approaches, especially south of Sydney.

Wave quality nothing special but a few fun ones out of the E/NE

This week (Aug14-16)

A summer style pattern is seeing tropical moisture dragged down the East coast by a trough and deep E/NE-NE flow from a large high in the Tasman, generating large stormy swells for QLD, grading smaller as you head down the NSW coast. This pattern breaks down as we head into the weekend leaving a broad troughy area of low pressure in the Tasman which is expected to redevelop over the weekend and generate sizey S swells later in the weekend and early next week. Models have been all over the place struggling to resolve this complex troughy area but confidence is now firming we’ll see some size from the S-S/SE from this redeveloped system.

In the short run we’ll see the troughy change overnight bring a light W/SW-SW flow which should extend into the early morning hours before tending light S’ly through the day. Fun E/NE-NE swells look to hold in 3 occ. 4ft range, with sets becoming less frequent in the a’noon as surf settles into the 2 occ. 3ft range.

Easing trend continues into Fri as swells from the E/NE-NE ebb away. Early should see a few 2-3ft sets before dropping below 2ft by close of play. Nice and clean though under a light offshore flow before winds swirl around with a period of light NE breezes possible in the a’noon. No great strength to it though so there should be options around for grovel in the a’noon if you get an early mark.

This weekend (Aug 17-18)

Looks like we will see an increasing W’ly flow through Sat as a small trough of low pressure joins the existing trough and starts to deepen NE of Tasmania. That will drive strong W’lies out of Bass Strait and a developing broad S’ly fetch adjacent to Tasmania. At this stage Sat will be tiny. We may see a small, late kick in S swell just before dark. We’ll finesse that on Fri but Sunday looks a much better bet.

Fresh W’lies tend W/SW through SW on Sun, likely clocking around S/SW-S by mid-a’noon. That should accompany a quite steep building trend in new S swell, mostly short/mid period stuff for this initial pulse. Expect size to build from 2-3ft up to 3-5ft at S exposed breaks, bigger on the Hunter but very wind affected. There’ll likely be a sweet spot on the way up where winds still have some W’ly component.

Next week (Aug 19 onwards)

Plenty of size to start the week as the Tasman sea trough of low pressure gets supported by a deeper southerly fetch associated with a complex polar low. High pressure moves into the Tasman early next week so we’ll see light winds establish from Mon, with light land and seabreezes. We should see mid period S swell to 3-5ft with some 6ft sets at direct S facing beaches and reefs through Mon.

Stronger, longer period S swells from the deeper fetch should fill in o/night and be in the water for Tuesdays’ early. Solid sets are expected at S facing reefs- in the 6 occ. 8ft range, grading smaller into more sheltered locations. Early NW winds will clock around N and freshen from the N-N/NE in the a’noon.

Wed looks good for S facing beaches on a still sizey but easing S groundswell. An approaching trough and low should see winds tend NW to W/NW during the day with solid sets to 4-5ft (occ 6ft at S facing reefs) easing to 3ft during the a’noon.

Still some swell around for Thurs. A reinforcing fetch is located in New Zealand longitudes early next week and while most of the energy is aimed at Pacific targets we should see some nice sideband swell energy from the S/SE fill in during Thurs, supplying some 2-3ft (occ4ft) sets at S exposed breaks under an offshore flow from the W-W/NW tending NW through the day.

That should hold a surfable wave into Fri under current modelling.

Further ahead and it looks like easing swells into next weekend but we’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Seeya then.