Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong S’ly swell spike building Wed with winds freshening from the SW
• S swell holds into Thurs AM before easing, winds tending more W’ly through the a’noon
• Small fun S swells Fri with offshore winds
• Easing surf Sat with offshore winds- late S swell spike possible 
• S swell Sun with offshore winds
• Easing S swells Mon next week
• Surf likely to go tiny/flat with hard W’ly winds next week

Recap

E’ly swells held in yesterday after a minor bump Mon a’noon (mostly swallowed by the tide) with sets to 3ft brushed by very stiff W’lies. The tide swallowed most of it again in the a’noon. Stiff W’lies again this morning, which will shift SW around lunch-time as a north-wards moving low centre slingshots a fetch up the coast. S swell is showing to 3ft this morning under offshore with a spike in size expected this a'noon under fresh SW winds.

Still some fun peelers yesterday before the tide swallowed it

This week (July 17-19)

We still have a dual centred (dumbbell) low in the Tasman with one centre currently swinging northwards up the NSW Coast and the other remaining close to Tasmania. This is driving stiff W’ly tending SW’ly winds all the way up to the tropics - even New Caledonia is seeing this stiff SW flow! The current northwards moving low and proximate fetch will generate a quick spike in S swell before it quickly moves away with following fronts now looking more zonal and not as favourable for swell production. 

In the short run todays S swell spike will peak o/night and be on the decline by tomorrow morning. There’ll still be some size on offer, likely in the  4-6ft range at true S exposed breaks, smaller elsewhere but expect that to ease off rapidly. It’s really just a blast in windswell so by close of play we’ll see half the size as swell energy quickly fades. Early W-W/SW winds will tend SW then veer back more W/SW-W through the a’noon under the influence of the more southern low. 

Friday looks like a fun day for S facing beaches as winds shift around more W/NW and even NW in response to an approaching front. The southern low will be generating SW-S winds through later Wed into Thurs. It’s a tight fetch, not perfectly aligned or in the swell window, but it should be sufficient to hold 3ft sets at S facing beaches with some bigger sets at true S swell magnets. Not much elsewhere.

This weekend (July 20-21)

Saturdays front now looks much more zonal (W-E) so we’ll expect those W’ly winds to really stiffen up through the day. Small leftover S swells should hold some 2ft surf at S facing beaches, with tiny/flat surf elsewhere. Strong W’ly gales out of Bass Strait from early Sat may see a bump in small S swell- up to 3ft at S facing beaches from Sydney north- right on dark but it’s a low percentage play with Sun being a better bet.

Sun sees another spike in S swell that looks to have peaked o/night and already be on the decline. We should still see some 4ft sets at S exposures, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter, and smaller from the Illawarra southwards due to the position and alignment of the winds in the fetch. Offshore winds all day so get in early. By lunch-time and certainly mid-afternoon size will be rapidly easing.

Next week (July 22 onwards)

Not much change to the outlook next week. Large low pressure gyres to the East of Tasmania and in the Bight with no swell generating winds in any of our swell windows. Nothing even flukey to look out for.

Unless that changes we’ll see a few small leftovers Mon, topping out at 2ft at S magnets then tiny/flat surf for the rest of the week under offshore W’ly winds.

If you are super keen there may be some tiny longboard waves on offer at the very shallowest of sandbanks in the ankle/knee high range on Tues. Otherwise, forget about it for the working  week.

A modest frontal system looks to push into the Tasman Fri or Sat next week (see below), suggesting a small S swell later next weekend.

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Seeya then.