Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jun 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf continues right into and over the weekend- good for logs and beginners
• Keep an eye on some stray sets from the E Wed into Thurs (small and slow) with offshore winds
• Not much on the weekend, possibly some small NE windswell Sun (very marginal)
• Low moving into the Tasman next week with a S swell spike TuesS tending SE swells next week but winds look iffy- should improve later in the week

Recap

Small and clean surf yesterday hovered in the 2ft range with a few 3ft sets on the Hunter and other magnets. Another glorious winters day today with offshore winds and small surf offering up the occ. 2 footer. Just enough to get a shortboard up on the plane for shredders but a great day for longer boards and beginners. 

Glorious winters day with a few small beachies on offer

This week (June 26-28)

As mentioned in Mondays notes, the Tasman sea is benign this week with a weak high cell sitting over NSW and slowly moving into the Tasman. All the action remains in the Bight and SW corner with a complex series of slow moving cut-off lows in that region (see Craigs’ Victorian/WA notes for details). Our benign outlook  runs into the weekend and right through it so there’ll be a few days better suited for rockfishing/inshore diving ahead. Finally, early next week one of the cut-off lows moves into the Tasman with a sizey S swell spike expected before a smaller regime of S-SE swells and winds from the same direction as a southwards situated high maintains a ridge along the temperate NSW coast.

No major swell sources for the rest of the week so expect very low energy surf zones. As mentioned Mon, there may be the very occ. 1-2ft sets across open beaches from the E, generated last weekend but this swell signal will be very faint so expect long periods of tiny/flat surf in between sets, if they show at all. Still, conditions should be dreamy with offshore winds most of both days, more W/NW tomorrow, W/SW-SW Fri before ending up in light/variable flows. If you can find a little bank it may be worth waiting for the sets. 

This weekend (June 29-30)

Hard to see much of interest this weekend. Sat looks tiny/flat with a developing NW flow as the cut-off low approaches. 

The N’ly fetch we identified on Mon, now looks weak and poorly positioned for surf generation. We’ll take a last look at it on Fri but at this stage Sun also is looking tiny, possibly with a few just rideable side-winders from the N-NE. Expect NW winds which will shift more W and possibly W/SW as a low shifts E or NE of Tasmania. 

Next week (July 1 onwards)

By Mon morning we should a low NE of Tas with a secondary system further away in the Tasman towards the South Island. The proximate fetch of strong winds to low end gales will initially see freshening W/SW-SW winds through Mon. 

We probably won’t see any increase in major S swell until after dark but we’ll fine-tune that on Fri. At this stage pencil in another tiny day Mon. A frontal system moving quickly thriough the lower Tasman over the weekend (see below) may send a small pulse of S'ly groundswell up the pipe making landfall Mon a'noon. We'll see how that looks Fri but a few 2-3ft sets at S swell magnets could be on the cards for Mon a'noon.

Tuesday looks a safer bet with a strong spike in S swell expected, pushing up into the 6-8ft range through the day, although with winds shifting fresh S’ly direct S facing beaches will likely be a blown out mess.

That spike then looks to ease through Wed with winds remaining from the S.

We should see winds improve later next week as high pressure slides Eastwards, hopefully up over NSW in winter formation. Models are suggesting a fetch lingering near New Zealand with small but fun sized SE-E/SE swells later next week.

Confidence is low this far out but we’ll definitely see more action next week, even if winds look a bit iffy.

Check back Fri for the latest look at it.

Seeya then.