Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jun 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing swells this week- looks to be a run of tiny days into the weekend, biggest Tues
• Keep an eye on some stray sets from the E Wed into Thurs (small and slow) with offshore winds
• Developing N’lies on Sat with some workable NE windswell Sun 
• Looking to the S for the next swells, in the week beginning 1/7
• Possibly S tending SE swells next week but winds look iffy

Recap

Nothing too exciting over the weekend with windy S swell to 3-4ft Sat (cleanest early), building a notch into Sun with 4-5ft of S swell on offer, smaller into more sheltered locations. This morning is nice and clean with classic winter offshore conditions and around 3ft of surf from a slightly better S/SE direction, offering up some fun options across the region.

Nice conditions this morning with some fun waves. Downhill size-wise, from here.

This week (June 24-28)

All the action is in the Bight at the moment, with a deep slow moving  cut-off low. The Tasman Sea, by contrast, is looking very mellow with a weak high pressure cell over NSW and a few decaying remnants of the long lasting Tasman Low sitting near New Zealand. Those weak pressure gradients across our main S-SE swell window will lead to a very quiet week swell wise, with mostly offshore winds. Details below.

Not a great deal to froth over this week with tomorrow morning seeing a few clean leftovers to 2 occ. 3ft , dropping back to 2ft or less in the a’noon. Nice clean conditions with W tending NW winds and a light N’ly in the a’noon.

Tiny through Wed and into Thurs with only magnets seeing a 1 occ. 2ft wave. There will be a mostly offshore W’ly flow though, with a light N’ly bias Wed, possibly tending more W/SW Thurs as a small trough moves off the Hunter. Not much to work, with but a few small log waves could be on the menu. A sub-tropical low north of the North Island scooted away to the SE over the weekend and we may see a few stray 2ft sets from the E later Wed into Thurs. Very flukey source though, so keep expectations pegged very low.

The trough and a weak front push through Fri with W winds and an a’noon seabreeze. Nothing much in it- remaining tiny, with minor S swell signal possibly lifting wave heights to 1 occ. 2ft at the best S swell magnets. Again, mostly log surf.

This weekend (June 29-30)

We’ll see N’ly winds freshen this weekend as the cut-off low approaches, with a workable fetch developing off the NSW Coast and NE windswell likely to push up into the 2-3ft range on Sunday as the fetch develops (see below).

Not much at all on Sat at this stage- more tiny surf with W tending NW then N’ly winds.

Sunday has some potential with the NE windswell likely to clean up as winds shift NW then W in the a’noon. It looks to be a small window though as surf drops very quickly once the N’ly fetch gets shunted eastwards. We’ll fine-tune timing through the week.

Next week (July 1 onwards)

Models have been flip-flopping but we are starting to have some confidence on a frontal system and low entering the Tasman next week. It’s likely to be small on Mon and offshore before we see a building trend in S swell later Mon or into Tues. 

Both major models are then suggesting some sort of low moving either into the Central Tasman, or further north.

That would generate S tending SE swells by mid week, with winds likely from the same direction. 

Lets see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.