Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jun 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Rebuild in bog standard S swell Sat PM, holding Sun AM before easing with SW-S/SW tending S’ly winds Sat, more S’ly on Sun
• Small leftovers from the S-S/SE Mon with clean conditions
• Easing swells next week- looks to be a run of tiny days into next weekend
• Looking to the S for the next swells, in the week beginning 1/7

Recap

Our epic run of swell is slowly winding down as we head into the winter solistice. Still solid sets yesterday with size to 4-5ft, mostly from the S/SE-SE and favourable winds. Swells have clocked around more E/SE today with size to 3 occ. 4ft and clean conditions under W-W/NW winds which will tend SW and freshen in the a’noon as a front and following trough migrate northwards up the coast. 

Another memorable day yesterday with size, sunshine and offshore winds. 

This weekend (June 22-23)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The trough and remnants of the Tasman Low will strengthen a SW-S flow across the region through Sat, so best conditions early as winds have more westerly component in them. S’lies in the a’noon are expected to exceed 20 knots with gusts possible to 30 knots so the a’noon will be windy and mostly blown out. Short period S swell will rise as a result but keep expectations low- we’re looking at 2-3ft of S swell building to 4-5ft in the ‘noon, bigger 6ft (tops) at more open exposures acrossd the Hunter. And, conversely, smaller into more sheltered nooks where the short swell periods won’t help much as far as wrapping in.  There’ll be a rideable wave if you aren’t too fussy.

S’lies again for Sun. A brief period of W-SW winds at the usual spots north of the Harbour and Central Coast but windy and raggedy elsewhere. We should see just a slight improvement in swell direction as the fetch tied to the low remnants swings the angle around more S/SE. Generally speaking though, it won’t have too much quality too it. Size in the 4-5ft range and slowly easing in the a’noon. Winds should lay down through the a’noon so a Sunday sesh is worth having a look around for. Again, waves on offer if you aren’t too fussy about quality.

Next week (June 24 onwards)

Looks like a good week to fix dings and catch up on other chores that may have been neglected. Easing swells and a few tiny days ahead next week with generally light winds.

Monday looks the biggest of the week as the leftovers from the weekend’s S swell supply 2-3ft surf with light winds, tending to light N’lies in the a’noon.

By Tuesday we’ll have a weak high in the Tasman directing a light wind flow across Central/Southern NSW, with a NW’ly bias. Those winds are likely  to tend more W and freshen mid week as a cut-off low and interior trough system approaches. 

Not much surf though. 

All the swell sources we mentioned Wed look to be duds.

We may see some traces of E swell from Wed into Thurs from the South Pacific system but that would amount to very, very Inconsistent 1 occ. 2ft sets. Barely worth waiting for.

Tiny to flat surf extends into next weekend.

The next major item to look out for is a complex low and frontal system which looks to approach the southern swell window next weekend (see below). Models are still divergent but that should see a renewal in S swell, possibly sizey early week beginning 1/7. 

We’ll see how that is shaping up on Mon. Hope you got a few from this last run of swell. 

Check back Mon for the latest notes and until then, have a great weekend!