Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jun 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large again Tues but with a slow easing trend and W-SW winds- swell trending more S/SE-SE in the a’noon
• Slowly easing Wed (still solid) into Thurs with swells more SE and offshore winds
• Nice mop up day Fri with small, fun SE swells
• Rebuild in bog standard S swell Sat, holding into Sun with SW-S/SW winds
• Easing swells next week- should be a few fun days of S/SE swell and offshore winds
• Not much on the radar next week

Recap

Plenty of S swell over the weekend with Sat seeing windy 3-5ft of surf. Sunday started in much the same way before a strong increase in new swell after lunch pushed wave heights up to the 8-10ft range with some bigger surf (10-12ft) at bommies and big wave spots under SW winds. This morning is still big but just a little subdued compared to yesterday afternoons pulse. Still some solid surf around in the 8-10ft range on the sets under W-SW winds, making conditions a little wind affected south of Sydney, cleaner north of the Harbour. 

Maybe slightly under-sized this morning but still capping on the bommies

This week (Jun 17-21)

We’ve got a deep low (988 hPa) semi-stationary in the Central Tasman with strong high pressure support south-west of Tasmania and a broad coverage of strong winds to low end gales through the southern Tasman. That low is expected to slowly drift and dissipate through the week, maintaining elevated surf through too mid-week with a very slow easing trend in place. We’ll see a rebuild in more bog standard S swell over the weekend as remnants of the low gets captured by a cold front pushing into the Tasman. Plenty  of solid surf on offer this week. 

Not a great deal of change in the f/cast compared to Fri and even earlier( this swell has been in the radar for 2weeks!). Mod/fresh W-SW winds tomorrow will slowly ease through the day. Tomorrow will still be a big surf day with solid 8ft sets still on tap at S exposed breaks (possibly a few 10 footers at open bommies). Keep tabs on the a’noon for a slightly better angled pulse generated by a slingshot of winds around the southern flank of the low today. By close of play we should see conditions starting to look a little more user friendly (still experts only) as winds back down a notch and big sets become more infrequent.

Still pumping Wed with 6ft and occ. 8ft sets under straight offshore winds which should tend W and even W/NW through the day. By close of play we should be in the 4-6ft range with just the very occ. bigger set.

Thursday looks cherry with straight offshore W-W/NW winds which may tend more pre-frontal NW or even light N as a decaying low approaches from the bight. We’ll see surf drop back into user friendly ranges through the day although expect some 4-5ft surf in the morning with the occ. 6ft set before easing to 3-4ft by close of play.

Nice friendly mop up day Fri with swell trains from the SE-E/SE from the various E’ly infeeds into the decaying low. We should see some 3 occ. 4ft sets early before we drop back into the 2 occ. 3ft range after lunch. Groomed by W-W/SW winds in the  morning which look to tend more SW through the a’noon as a cold front pushes up the coast.

This weekend (June 22-23)

We’ll see a rebuild in more bog standard S swell this weekend as a cold front pushes strong winds proximate to the coast (see below). Expect fresh SW tending S/SW winds Sat, extending into Sun before easing in the a’noon.

Under current modelling we’d expect size in the 4-5ft range at S exposures, bigger 6ft on the Hunter. S quadrant winds will likely force surfing into more sheltered locations where size will be smaller. There should be a wave to be had.
Sunday starts off similar before size eases through the day. Nothing incredible but there should be a rideable wave both days.

Next week (June 24 onwards)

Much quieter week ahead next week. We’ll be on an easing trend with a dissipating fetch near New Zealand holding some small S/SE swell into Mon, likely in the 3ft range and dropping through Tues. Winds look good, seasonal offshores for the first half of next week, tending more NW-N by mid week as a weak, elongated high pressure system moves across the Tasman. That should see a few small days, possibly becoming tiny into next week.

There’s a an approaching cut-off low later next week, so we’ll tag that for now, and see how it’s shaping up on Wed.

In the meantime, enjoy the week of waves. Hope your coastline pumps.