Windy and sizey from the S this weekend with some big days next week
Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jun 14th)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Windy on Sat with SW-S winds and modest S swell building in the a’noon
- Large again Sun, with a late kick in really solid S/SE swell and fresh SW winds
- Large and clean Mon with W tending SW winds, remaining mod/fresh
- Large again Tues but with a slow easing trend and W-SW winds
- Slowly easing Wed into Thurs with swells more SE and offshore winds
Recap
Raw S swell yesterday was a notch underwhelming in the 5-6ft range with fresh SW-S winds. Size has eased back into the 3-4ft range, bigger on the Hunter with W/SW-SW winds early now tending mod/fresh S-S/SE. Much better days to come.
Raw S swell yesterday won't make the history books but there were a few options around
This weekend (June 15 - 16)
No great change to the broadscale pattern this weekend. A secondary front pushing into the Tasman coalesces with a deepening low near New Zealand and the system then retrogrades back into the Tasman over an already active sea state delivering powerful S/SE swell before taking up residency in the Central Tasman for a few days next week with a slow, slow easing in big swells expected.
The S’ly flow looks stiff on Sat so get in early for a morning SW flow, at least north of the Harbour. Other areas like the Illawarra and Hunter are more likely to be wind affected from the start. Winds shift S/SE then back more S’ly later in the a’noon. We’ll see a mod S swell to 3-4ft, rebuild to 5-6ft later in the a’noon but keep expectations pegged low due to the wind. Smaller surf in more protected locations will be on the menu.
By Sunday we’ll see the retrograding low and high well to the south of Tasmania tighten pressure gradients along the SE of the country so expect freshening SW winds, likely reaching strong wind strength during the day. Strong winds to low end gales will rebuild S’ly swells through the day and in the a’noon we’ll see an increase in new S/SE groundswell into that highly energetic mix. Expect surf to start in the 5-6ft range at S exposures, building to 6-8ft in the a’noon and with bigger 10ft sets as the S/SE swell fills in to the mix. Windy and big, in short.
Next week (June 17 onwards)
No change to the size estimates for Mon. We’re still looking at very large 10-12ft surf from the S/SE. Compared to Wed’s notes it does look like local winds will be more vigorous as pressure gradients remain tight along the NSW South and Central Coast (much lighter from the MNC northwards). Those winds should start off W-W/SW and then clock around SW and remain mod/fresh all day. That will reduce the range of surfable options but most spots will be overpowered anyway, apart from a few select big wave points, reefs and Islands.
Tuesday will still be solid with 8ft sets, possibly a few bigger outliers at deepwater reefs with a slow easing trend through the day. It’ll take some time for local pressure gradients to ease so expect a continuing W-SW flow Tues that will still have some strength to it- although we definitely should see a noticeable easing in winds by close of play.
Which leaves straight offshore breezes for Wed. There’ll be a broad spectrum of E quadrant winds feeding into the low early next week which should see swells from the SE-E/SE through Wed and into Thurs. Likely still in the 4-6ft range Wed and easing to 3-4ft through Thurs. Hopefully with plenty of high quality banks to go with the A grade conditions.
Further ahead and offshore winds are likely to continue into the weekend. We may see a weaker front join the decaying low (see below) but at this stage windspeeds look modest so we’re looking at a small pulse in S swell possible later next Fri and extending into Sat.
Plenty to stay focussed on in the meantime. Check back Mon for the latest notes and until then, have a great weekend!
Comments
sounds like they should push the SIC back to Tues/Weds.. any chance they would?
Wed arvo late looks great but the tides are no good until then. They need to run 5-6 hours of surf, hence going Sunday. Bummer.
yeah but I've seen it run and surfed in pretty low tides before! some of the years were going dry nearly every wave.. you'd happily sacrifice that over average conditions.
Or if they're that desperate have it over 2 days.
SIC live stream for Sunday.
First hooter an hour-and-a-half after low. Shallow as a shower recess.
yeh exactly whats the diff... move it to tuesday and start at 12. So many eyes on this comp and riders in from all over the world.. I'm sure they'd rather perfect conditions with a couple early lowtide heats over junky crosshore
Wednesday is the day for me, arvo should be great if that wind goes variable.
That's the whole point of the SIC though isn't it? Boogs charging the heaviest, sketchiest slabs as only they can. Tide really shouldn't be a factor.
Craig
Come Wednesday unless banks change considerably from Monday blast I foresee lots of closeout straight handers aside from some points
I reckon there'll be some cooking options.
Check the evolution of the low..
HOH
That's how big it will be on Wednesday, I'm imagining. Tuesday will probably be bigger. Maybe not.
To me, Monday will be one of those days where waves aren't breaking like they normally do. I wouldn't be surprised to see big breakers way out the back washing through wide and not even hitting the surge.
Tuesday arvo for mine- but the question is will there be enough East in the swell? If not, Craig may well be right with the Wednesday call. Get some heats out of the way tomorrow and save finals for later seems the obvious call, but there's logistics that organisers have to navigate that most of us aren't privy too. In any case, it's fun to have all this amp and energy around a swell event.
Sick footage..will tune in now after seeing that ..
Looks way too sth on cams. Might be the cutback classic instead.
Doesn't look great does it, what a shame.
Watching now definitely sone good ones comming through but pretty junky
Very south but nice one then!
Just got back from watching a few heats. Good viewing from the water. No doubt could've been better but still gets the blood pumping staring into semi-dry kegs.
The odd surge keg hey, that wash through was huge. The local crew certainly seem more dialled on this swell. Credit to all involved for making the day happen.
6-9 ft at my local pumping
Huge down here for the late.
Proper huge.
Anyone out?
Really strong increase on the buoy array.
Left Cronulla with some heavy-hitting sets standing up on the point. Old Mate Gerry Manion sitting at the head of the lineup with his son, both getting great waves as Second Reef drained away.
Not sure what happened on the drive back south but the local here was enormous. Whistle clean but breaking way out off the reef....the normal reef, that is, with a small crew getting stuck into it. Lotta hairy clean up sets, had to keep one eye permanently on the horizon, at times just clearing sets while paddling way out in what should be deep water.
No idea what the morning is gonna bring.
Phone meltdown....
Yep Eden buoy wave height scale has gone crazy, can't recall the y axis showing an 18m scale.
Woah...
Bloody Lovely J-curves on every bouy south of Crowdy head :)
Buoy meltdown.
BB still holding with the 9m axis.
Like looking at a thunderstorm radar.
Surprisingly clean for the amount of energy in the water… checked my indicator on dark and If it eases a fraction over night it’ll still be more than enough for novelty spots… stay safe
The buoy is nearly 10m, period 14 seconds, and the wind right now is 9 knts from the WSW.
Incredible.
Been holding steady at 10m too. Phenomenal.
Proper huge at dusk on Cronulla Point, 8 to 10' sets coming through every 5 or so minutes, and it was really clean. Some really big Caverns to be had. Plus enjoyed watching the Shark Island Challenge. The point had the better waves due to the straight south direction of the swell but every now and then there was a gem. Some of the bomb sets had the boats scrambling for cover and during the final there was one 4 or 5 wave clean up set which pretty much mowed down all the spectators in the water.
Can't wait to see what the ocean brings us this morning, the buoys are nuts.
Late check before dark 10ft monsters can’t wait to see it first light
Wide distribution of offshore winds across the region, looks like some S quadrant wind (SW) on the Illawarra.
Bouy data still very strong.
Cmon first light!!
We have 2 out at CP
yeah 2 guys out on the Alley cam.........hope they are not in trouble
Strange. There’s swell there but nothing like yesterday at Wedding Cake.
Can’t quite work that out. Was expecting monsters. Where’s it gone?
That’s what I was thinking?
What wave buoy data is preferred here?
Checking Manly Hydraulics Lab and none of the wave buoys have gone above 6 metres in the last 24 hours.
3 guys have paddled out at Wedding Cake. It’s breaking, but yet to see anything matching yesterday.
Definitely dropped from yesterday avro here to maybe it will spike with incoming tide again ??
the odd set at CP, but not really looking like it did on dark yesty arvo? tide? some footage from last night filtering through from a couple spots i won't name with no one out and impeccably clean - i guess the lago caught everyone off guard for spots that don't handle much S in the wind
Sorry definitely bigger today way bigger
On days like today I wonder about Lord Howe Island. Is it Australian Hawaii or not?
Just had three hours at the local. Low wave count considering the marathon session.
Not as clean, big, or downright intimidating as late yesterday arvo's session.
Feels like today is the raw, first day of a swell, bit raggedy, few baubles in the waves. Gonna have a look at the buoy data and see what to make of it considering it's actually the second day.
If nothing else, the swell is gonna have a long tail as the ASCAT readings are still impressive and the MSLP charts show the low will park itself for a few days yet.
it's reading like there's still more size to come as well? hope you scored a couple this morn
dolphins are cheeky buggers arent they, popping their fins out of the water...
nothing else to report, ahem.
Disappointing today seeing the large, late sets yesterday.